A very warm welcome from me, Graham Tearse, to live coverage of the US presidential elections from the Mediapart English editorial team. I’m joined by my colleagues Michael Streeter (the early morning editor), Patricia Brett and Sue Landau, as we cover the 2012 US presidential elections. Barack Obama has been re-elected as president of the United States, after a nail-biting contest with his Republican rival Mitt Romney. You can follow the history of the overnight hours of this thrilling race, blow-by-blow, below, and all the unfolding news, analysis and reaction to this major political event, both in the US and as seen from France.
All times of the posts entered below are Central European Time (CET). Latest content input is at the top of the page, so if you've just joined us and want to catch up on the earlier events as they happened, please scroll down.
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10H55: M.S.: The last word for the moment comes from the always interesting Minister of Productive Recovery Arnaud Montebourg who has been expanding on his reaction to the Obama victory. Here's Sue again:
S.L.: “France can learn from the Obama model in defending industrial employment, Montebourg told BFM TV. In an unusual tribute from a French Socialist, a camp that is usually somewhat hostile to America, he said that France was "following exactly the same road" as Obama.
"Barack Obama put 'made in America' and bringing industrial jobs back after so many years of outsourcing at the heart of his campaign. And he won Ohio, one of the key states, which is a car making state where the working class united behind him, Barack Obama, because it is grateful for the work he has done to reindustrialise, or re-take control, of the automobile majors, General Motors, Chrysler and others," he said. This political will was one of the determining factors in Obama's re-election, Montebourg said.”
That's all for now, folks. A reminder once more that Barack Obama has been re-elected President of the United States, a victory that's been warmly greeted here in France – especially by the ruling Socialist administration.
It just remains for me to say thank you for following this live coverage of the US elections on Mediapart English.
10H45: M.S.: Sue's been busy again...
S.L.: "A recurring theme among French commentators this morning is that the extreme wing of the Republican Party worked against Mitt Romney's chances. Retrograde pronouncements from leading Republicans on abortion and rape show that it trails behind American society, Guillaume Serrina, a French journalist working in the U.S., told LCI TV. "The Republicans need to be more in phase with an America which is evolving," Serrina said. "The Republicans have been a monolithic, white party for a long time now."
However, veteran French journalist Gérard Carreyrou saw a positive attribute behind Obama's re-election. "I think he was elected above all for his leadership qualities," Carreyrou, now a commentator for Europe 1 radio, told LCI TV. "It's not for nothing that he is called the commander-in-chief," he added, recalling George W. Bush's poor performance when Hurricane Katrina hit Louisiana in 2005."
10H25: M.S.: The centrist politician François Bayrou, president of MoDem, which has struggled to make its voice heard in recent elections here in France, has added his congratulations for a " bigger victory than expected from Barack Obama". This serves as a useful reminder that with just Florida to come - not for the first time that state's had a few electoral difficulties - Obama has 303 Electoral College votes to Romney's 206. It's been a clear-cut win for the White House incumbent.
09H55: M.S.: More downbeat analysis gleaned by Sue from French media outlets:
S.L.: “The analysis from Jacques Attali, an economist and consultant identified with Mitterrand and the Socialist Party, similarly puts Obama's success down to Republican weakness rather than his own strength. "His secret is the fact of having to face a Republican Party that is extremely divided, between the extreme right, something equivalent to the Front National in the French context, and a centrist part. This inability to choose between these two lines prevented the Republicans from finding their way to success," he told France Info radio.
But although it is unusual for a leader to be re-elected in times of crisis, this is not the first time, Attali noted. "Roosevelt was re-elected in 1940 in exceptional circumstances, and recently Angela Merkel was re-elected in Germany." "
09H32: M.S.: Amid the back-slapping, Sue's been find some more sober responses to President Obama's win.
S.L: “The result was "more a defeat for Mitt Romney than a victory for Barack Obama," Soufian Alsabbagh, author of the only biography of Romney published in French, told LCI television.
The next mandate will be difficult for Barack Obama, not only because implacable Republican opposition to his initiatives will continue unabated, but also because his position is by definition fragile, said Professor André Kaspi, an historian and a specialist on the United States. "From 2015 onwards he will be a lame duck president because he cannot be re-elected. So he has two years before him to act, and whatever he has not accomplished by then, he will not be able to do," he said.”
09H06: M.S.: Meanwhile here's President Hollande's message to his American counterpart in full: “The American people have just renewed their trust in you for the next four years. On behalf of all French people, and on a personal level too, I offer you my warmest congratulations. It is an important moment for the United States but also the world.
“Your re-election is a clear choice in favour of an America that is open, that shows solidarity, that is fully engaged on the international scene and which is aware of the challenges facing our planet: on peace, the economy and the environment.”
09H00: M.S.: Just in case you wanted more from former foreign minister Hubert Védrine - and can one have too much? - here it is:
SL: “Védrine went on to say that Europe could now forge a meaningful partnership with a re-elected Obama. "Precisely because the U.S. looks first to the Pacific - which is normal - there is an opportunity for Europe now.... I wouldn't have said that if it had been Romney this morning," he told LCI television. "As long as Europe is not dependent on decisions taken by Washington... on strategy, military issues, the economy, the financial system which has gone mad, ecology, Europe has the opportunity to wield more influence in a partnership if it wishes to."”
08H50: M.S.: The one we've been waiting for (well here in France, anyway): President François Hollande has offered his “warmest congratulations” to President Obama. The French head of state described the election result as an “important moment for the United States but also the world”.
08H43: M.S.: More figures are starting to pop up on TV screens...
S.L.: “Another figure identified with France's first Socialist President François Mitterrand, Hubert Védrine, said Obama's election was an opportunity for Europe. "We have an administration that is more available, less rigid, on the major issues in the world," said Védrine, who was Mitterrand's diplomatic advisor and Foreign Minister under the Socialist "cohabitation" with President Jacques Chirac from 1997 to 2002.”
08H34: M.S.: Sue Landau's been monitoring more reaction from French commentators:
S.L.: "Major political figures are still fairly scarce on French TV screens, but Elisabeth Guigou, who became a minister under Socialist President François Mitterrand 30 years ago, was again commenting this morning. Barack Obama, she says, "is close to European values - closer, in any case"."
08H32: M.S.: Sue Landau brings some more detail from Minister Montebourg, and it's spiky stuff too:
"Barak Obama is a real unifier, he unifies the United States and the world," he told LCI TV. In a jibe at the tensions in Europe, he said the U.S. economy was benefiting from its policy of quantitative (monetary) easing. "It's a good example for the European Central Bank", he said."
08H30: M.S.: One of the key figures in the French government, Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici, has expressed his“great pleasure” at Obama's victory, “because he is not a president like others. [The United States] is an ally, a friend, because this is an administration with which we work extremely well,” he told RTL radio.
08H11: M.S.: Meanwhile the opposition centre-right UMP's General Secretary Jean-François Copé has been, equally predictably, less party political in his reaction, offering his “warmest congratulations to President Obama for his re-election which demonstrates the trust which he has been able to inspire in his people in spite of the international economic and financial crisis”. He adds: “President Obama undeniably belongs to the category of those who have left a mark and will leave a mark on history.” Heavy stuff for this time of the morning!
08H00: M.S.: Here in France the ruling Socialist Party's First Secretary Harlem Désir has reacted to the US election result with predictable satisfaction. "Barack Obama's re-election is a great victory for the Democrat Party and progressive forces in the United States who are fighting for fiscal justice, social protection, social reforms such as the right for everyone to get married, international co-operation and peace faced with the ultra-reactionary Right who supported the Republican Mitt Romney,” he says. So no sitting on the fence there then.
07H32: M.S.: With all the other state results in, the only one we're waiting for is Florida. So far Obama has 303 Electoral College votes to Romney's 206. So whichever way Florida goes, it's a clear-cut win for the incumbent.
07H26: M.S.: The President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy – the nearest thing the European Union has to its own president - has also said he is "very happy" with President Obama's re-election. I hope the comments will get a little more varied and original...by the way, Van Rompuy's middle name is Achille. Just in case you wanted to know.
07H17: M.S.: This special front page from the French daily Libération sums up the mood in the Obama camp (and dare one say much of France?):
07H11: M.S.: It's still early here in France so reactions are only now starting to trickle in to Obama's win. Quick off the blocks is France's Minister of Productive Recovery – that's Industry Minister to you and me - Arnaud Montebourg who says he is “very happy with the results”.
07H05: M.S.: Any lingering doubts about Obama's win – Romney held back from conceding defeat after reports that Ohio was too close to call - are dispelled now that the Republican candidate has called the president to wish him luck. Romney has since publicly thanked his supporters, who've had a deeply disappointing night.
06H58: M.S.: Incidentally, the Obama team's Tweet “Four more years” that went out as news of the Ohio victory broke is now said to be the most popular Tweet in history...well, since Twitter began. And just a few minutes ago a million people had “liked” the “Four More Years” Obama Facebook page.
06H55: Michael Streeter: Good morning all! According to France’s Catholic newspaper La Croix most Americans in Paris seem to have voted Democrat in the election. “If Romney wins it will be a disaster!” it quotes a retired American brain surgeon as saying. Well, he needn't worry now...
06H30: G.T.: So there you have it, Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States, is re-elected to a second term of office. When all the celebrations dampen down, the 51 year-old will find himself back in the eye of the storm, and I'd bet that a lot of the world will be relieved that it's not Romney who'll be flying his kite tonight. Beginning with French President François Hollande. For more on that, and the final wrap on events, I'm now handing over to my colleague Michael Streeter, who will be taking over our continuing live coverage as dawn spreads across France. Thanks for following us so far, and do stay with us for what will now be a revealing few hours. Just before I go, here's the Obama Tweet:
It's goodnight from me.
05H18: G.T.: That's it, the result is in. Barack Obama has won the 2012 US presidential elections. More coming.
05H15: G.T.: No, apologies, those cheers were a false alert about Florida. They're an excited crowd down there at Obama's HQ. But what they were shouting and jumping about - and believe me, they're all over the place, I'm watching them live - is that Obama has won Iowa. They are so excited, it seems the word is he's won.
As it stands, that's 249 Electoral College votes for Obama, against 191 for Romney. Well, only the Americans know how to produce a real thriller. We have one tonight.
The crunch now is who will win Ohio, Florida and Virginia. But it's swinging for Obama, who could even lose Ohio and win.
04H59: G.T.: Florida is heading for a recount, according to latest reports on French television. Blimey, here we go again - maybe.
Oh, hold on, hold on...Al Gore 'Tweets' it's going Obama's way and, hold again...they're cheering at Obama's campaign HQ. What's happening? Just a moment, I'll be back.
04H55: G.T.: The map of results so far (sorry, available in French only but not hard to understand):
Enlargement : Illustration 4
04H45: G.T.: My colleague Patricia Brett brings the tension back with this baffling report: "CNN says 28% of the results are in from Pennsylvania (20 Electoral College votes) with 60% for Obama 39% for Romney.
In Florida (29 Electoral College votes), 84% of results are in with 50% for Obama and 49% for Romney."
04H33: G.T.: Tammy Baldwin, 50 (pictured) is the first openly lesbian Senator to be elected, in Wisconsin, defeating Tommy Thompson, 70, a former advisor to George W. Bush, after a campaign dominated by a debate over gay rights issues.
04H30: G.T.: If Obama takes Ohio, he'll need just two more Electoral College votes to win. If he takes Florida, he's got it.
BUT...Florida is looking very, very close. Could we be back to a recount, lawyers and all that 2000 election farce? Oooh.
04H23: G.T.: Romney's health care advisor, Avik S. A. Roy, senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute has just sent this revealing 'Tweet':
Well, now I'm feeling less out on a limb.
04H18: G.T.: If, as is looking increasingly likely, Obama wins this election, this blog by the Democrats' national field director may explain a key strategy.
04H09: G.T.: Where we are now: Romney has 159 Electoral College votes, Obama has 147.
03H59: G.T.: So, right now we're waiting still on the results from Florida and Ohio.
New Hampshire has gone for Obama, and that's a blow for Romney and a result Obama's campaign worked hard for, the president visiting it six times in a strategic battle for a number of target states. The latest buzz is that we're perhaps going to have to wait for Nevada as the final decider. That one will be for my colleague Michael Streeter to call, when he takes over this feed from 6 a.m. CET.
03H49: G.T.: In the parallel poll tonight, CNN predicts Republicans will keep majority in the House of Representatives.
03H43: G.T.: Obama wins Pennsylvania.
03H33: G.T.: New York Times correspondent Ashley Parker reports (on Twitter) a "dead silence in Romney ballroom when Fox News announces that he lost Michigan, his native state where his late father was governor". Romney, as we reported earlier, also loses in Massachusetts where he is governor.
03H19: G.T.: They're playing George Michael's 'Faith' at Romney's camapign HQ. Well, as I said before, politics is a funny business...
03H14: Patricia Brett sobers us all up (oh, those Bloody Mary's):
"CNN projects 123 votes to Obama and 152 for Romney. But this is without Virginia, Ohio, Florida or Colorado - key swing states.
CNN also projects that Republicans will keep control of the House of Representatives despite Democratic hopes to win it back."
03H10: G.T.: Well, I'm going out on a limb here, but it's looking to me like "Four more years". Obama is given as winning Ohio and Florida, with a two percent lead in both. That's very significant, even if these are predictions.
02H49: G.T.: Here it comes now, thick and fast: Mitt Romney is 'projected' by US media to win Indiana, Kentucky, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tenessee.
02H47: Patricia Brett reports: "Turnout seems to be very high in some states. CNN says that Virginia may keep the polls open for and extra 4 hours to accommodate people waiting in line.
New Hampshire, New Jersey and Florida are also showing high turnouts in some polling stations."
02H40: G.T.: US media reports suggest Obama has won in Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhode Island
02H25: Sue Landau reports a comment from Christine Ockrent, once a prominent French journalist, and a former freelance contributor to CBS TV current affairs magazine 60 Minutes. We're scraping the barrel with this, but we'll be giving you more pertinent comments from France when they start emerging Wednesday morning. Seems everyone's holding their breath and reputations this end. Ockrent, to try and help her importance here, is the partner of Nicolas Sarkozy's former foreign minister Bernard Kouchner.
"Given the things the Republicans have said about women all through this campaign, on abortion, rape [...] I think women's mobilisation goes beyond the political divide and is very strong," she told told rolling TV news channel BFM TV.
02H15: G.T.: We're getting close to the first important results. While it approaches, this postcard from my colleague Patricia Brett about her last trip this year back to her homeland...
P.B.: "A few weeks ago, I had to go to North Georgia for personal reasons. The third presidential debate took place while I was there but that did not spur much talk about the election in the tri-state area – Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama. Closer attention was paid to the weather which was unusually good at the beginning of the week until talk of Sandy took over round about Thursday.
As I drove around the region – largest city Chattanooga - keeping my eyes open, the only signs I saw of the impending election on people's lawns were Romney Ryan posters. I had to go a hundred miles south to Atlanta before seeing one or two Obama signs. But because of what the French call a "professional deformation" I brought up the election with my North Georgia entourage. "Obama is dangerous he wants to ban our assault weapons," shouted one person, who is, thankfully, too young to vote. This may have been said more to shock and provoke than to express a true thought – teenagers are funny that way.
Another person, of voting age this time, worried that Obama was "anti-Christian" – shorthand for implying that he is a Muslim. In a state in which the teaching of the theory of evolution is regularly questioned, these kinds of comments carry weight. Neighboring Tennessee recently passed a bill that encourages high school students to question evolutionary theory and protects teachers that teach creationism. This is the Bible Belt, after all, and church-going is serious business. The local Walmart in Fort Oglethorphe can't sell liquor on Sunday because there's a church at the other end of the parking lot.
I think I met some Obama supporters down there but they were clearly in the closet and wanted to stay there, and it is not my place to out them."
02H10: G.T.: And the winner is Obama! No, hold on, that refers to a basketball game with campaign staff tonight in Chicago. But the mood is turning. Reports of the nightime party preparations, although they're just reports, suggest the Democrat team are preparing a victory party. Could it be possible they know something we don't?
01H50: G.T.: Now, relax that tightening belt. Harry’s Bar in Paris (as you may know there are several others around the globe) is credited with giving accurate straw polls of almost – and I repeat, almost – every presidential election in recent US history. How recent? Well, in a century-long holding of straw polls, it’s imbibed and less-imbibed clients have only wrongly predicted two US presidential elections: that in 1976, won by Jimmy Carter, and that of, uhm, George W. Bush's victory in 2004. So that probably removes any supernatural glam from the story. But just hear this to convince you this is probably the best US election soothsayer you can find:
Only US citizens are allowed to vote in the poll, and they started doing so in October right up to tonight. They have strict rules about this, incidentally, and it’s the Scottish family heirs who manage the business who oversee it. There’s no joking with them (eh, Monsieur Portes?). What’s more, the MacElhone family, for it is they and it has been they since 1911, have a register that makes sure (apparently) that nobody fiddles by coming back to vote a second time over a Bloody Mary – this is the bar which invented the cocktail - and a new haircut.
Ernest Hemingway and Francis Scott Fitzgerald used to frequent the bar, close to the Garnier Opera House, it is where George Gershwin is said to have composed the score for ‘An American in Paris’, and James Bond author Ian Fleming called it the best place to get a "solid drink" in Paris.
So what’s the result? Obama! The democrat has a 165-32 victory over Romney. Trebles all round.
01H30: Patricia Brett reports: "CNN projects Vermont goes to Obama (3votes) and Kentucky goes to Romney (8votes). Exit polls in VA show a split 49% - 49%."
The tightness is getting....well, tighter! What a night.
01H25: G.T.: On Mediapart’s live wire coverage in French, a Mediapart subscriber who posts under the name of ‘Hubelorg’ asks: ‘What are the candidates’ positions regarding the Palestinian issue?’ The question is one of the most popular tonight among French readers, by a long margin.
For an answer, my colleagues on Mediapart’s French editorial team quoted from a live debate organised on this site (in French) earlier this evening with Jacques Portes, a French specialist in US politics, research director for the American studies department at the EHESS social sciences school and professor of American history at Paris 8 University. I know, that is a very French introduction, but the man is an expert, erudite and deserves to be heard.
So this is what he said: “Obama has no solutions to offer to solve the Israeli-Palistinian problem. He has tried, but he doesn’t get along with Netanyahu. The only thing he has succeeded with during his mandate is to prevent Israel from carrying out air strikes against Iran.
The presidential campaign has given very little space to international politics, and Mr Romney has manifested total support for Israel, and even more so because protestant fundamentalists are firmly behind Israel because they are against Islam.”
Well, that’s what Monsieur Portes says.
01H08: G.T.: My colleagues from the Mediapart's French editorial team report that exit polls give Obama a slim 49%-48% lead over Romney in the crunch 'swing' state of Ohio.
Meanwhile, here's a shot of the turnout in a gymnasium-turned polling booth from Mediapart's US correspondent Iris Deroeux.
00H55: G.T.: Along with Tuesday's presidential election are also elections for state governorships, representing a third of seats in the US Senate, and also for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives. The Democrats are tipped to keep control of the Senate, and the Republicans are tipped to keep control of the House. Over to Patricia Brett:
"Eleven State governor races with 8 Democrats leading are also being held.
All 435 House of Representative seats are up for election as are 33 Senate. Todd Akin - they guy who thinks that in the case of "legitimate rape" women cannot become pregnant, is running for a Senate seat in Missouri.
Oregon, Washington and Colorado voters are called upon to 'yay' or 'nay' ballot initiatives to legalize pot. All three states want to contol the production, distribution and taxation of marijuana. The Colorado and Washington initatives have a good chance of passing.
Arkansas and Maine are voting on legalising medical marijuana. Arkansas would be the first southern state to allow such a measure.
Other ballot measures concern: gay marriage, labour unions, illegal immigrants and affermative action programmes in education."
00H45: Patricia Brett again: "Voter turnout is high in parts of Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida - all three are swing states. The youth vote is stable compared to 2008, which is good for Obama and the 'senior' vote is high, which could favour Romney."
00H30: Patricia Brett reports: "Voting is being extended in New Jersey because of problems due to damage from Hurricane Sandy. Voters were allowed to vote by email and fax to make allowances for Sandy but these are not working well either. So voters are threatening law suits and, in answer, the polls are scheduled to stay open later.
Romney has left Pittsburgh for Boston where his election party will be held.
Obama is hanging out in Chicago where he and Michelle will wait for results. Obama spent the day doing interviews to be aired in swing states.
Both sides are claiming high turn outs and both say this is good for them."
23H22: G.T.: More from Sue Landau, watching over the comments from France from interviews on the French broadcast media. It has to be said, they’re few and far between just now, with most high-profile figures, and not least those who are government members, staying low-profile before the turn of events becomes clear.
Sue has picked up what watchers of French politics might consider a little nugget from Elisabeth Guigou, a prominent figure of the French Socialist Party and a former justice minister.
S.L.: “Guigou said François Hollande’s socialist government would have no difficulty if Mitt Romney were elected, despite their differences. "I remember François Mitterrand talked to Ronald Reagan, it's roughly the same. We will adapt," she told the LCI TV rolling news channel. (Elisabeth Guigou has held various ministerial posts and now chairs the foreign affairs commission in the French lower house of parliament, the National Assembly.)”
Well, that brings back a few memories - and not least of 66 year-old Guigou’s career under Mitterrand. Mitterrand "talked" to Reagan. The former – and first - French socialist president also famously described Margaret Thatcher as having “the eyes of Caligula and the mouth of Marilyn Monroe”. Funny business, politics...
22H41: G.T.: Oh look, Barack is Tweeting Ohio...(for more on why, see 21.33 and 21H45)
22H36: G.T.: While we're waiting for the match to get underway...Have you ever noticed that Obama thing about the way he moves his clenched fist, in jabbing moves, with his thumb on top? Well, so did the BBC.
It’s one of what BBC News has called ‘the ten oddities’ of the campaign, along with ‘Why elections are always on a Tuesday, why none of the key players, except Joe Biden, wears sunglasses even when they should and why somebody who actually loses the popular vote, in overall terms, can still be elected president.
But back to the Obama thumb thingemy. "It's a symbolic weapon," body language expert Patti Wood tells the BBC – and it's phallic, she says. "It's sexually male. Men put out their thumb and it says 'I am a man'." See more of this fascinating list here.
22H22: Patricia Brett writes: "Mitt and Paul had lunch together at a Wendy's (fast food burger joint) both wearing white shirt and a pale blue tie...they look like twinzies."
Bet that was a giant burger...Romney is sure doing some travelling today (for more scroll down to 20H05 post).
21H51: G.T.: Here's more from Sue Landau, zapping in and out of interviews on the French broadcast media, who writes:
S.L.: "An interesting take on why many of we Europeans apparently just don't understand the American mentality. For us Obama is the good guy and Romney wants to throw American society to the wolves of liberal economics, suggested the journalist interviewing Alison Smale, executive editor of the International Herald Tribune, on French rolling news channel I-Télé. She replied: "After the war the idea in Europe was that the state would be there to provide a safety net to those who needed it. In the States the idea is that people can do things themselves. It is another life, another society."
Hmmmm.
21H45: G.T.: Ah, well that brings us neatly on to The Lesson about Electoral Colleges. Once again, I hand you over to Patricia Brett, who chose a career in journalism instead of teaching, but who is good at both:
P.B.: “The president of the United States is elected by the Electoral College, not by the popular vote.Usually the Electoral College vote lines up with the popular vote, but not always.
Each state is allotted a number of Grand Electors based on population.
The candidate that wins the most votes in each state also usually wins all of that state's electoral votes. The larger, more populous states are worth more electoral votes and thus are subject to greater attention by the candidates than the smaller or less populous ones.
California, for example represents 55 votes in the Electoral College while Delaware represents only 3.
Some states are considered bastions of one party or the other. New York (29 votes) and California are seen as committed to the Democrats while Texas (38 votes) and Georgia (16 votes) are safe for the Republicans.
Twelve states are currently too close to call. These swing states or battleground states get much of the candidates' attention as each one attempts to tug the voters into his camp. Ohio (18 votes), Pennsylvania (20 votes) and Florida (29 votes) are the most significant swing states in the 2012 election. The other swing states are: Colorado (9), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), Wisconsin (10) and Virginia (13).
See more here."
21H40: Patricia Brett reports:
"CNN says Mitt has just arrived at his last campaign stop - Pittsburgh, PA. Pittsburgh used to be a steel mill town until the 1980 when the mills closed. The town has reconverted to high tech industries - software type stuff - and financial services. Not sure why he's going there except that PA is a swing state."
21H33: G.T.: Let’s take a quick step back to basics and establish just what the essential elements of this race are in terms of crunch numbers. The successful candidate needs 270 Electoral College votes to be elected, as my colleague Patricia Brett will explain in more detail in a moment.
Confused? Well, each state has a number of Electoral Colleges, based proportionately upon its population, and the results of these are decided by individual voters, whose votes are divided among these different colleges. It is a national count of how many Electoral Colleges voted for whom that decides a winner. The outright majority is attained by at least 270 electoral colleges.
By most accounts, not least by Obama’s and Romney’s respective campaign staff, each of the candidates can count on the loyal, traditional support of a large number of states that would give them the following base: 196 Electoral Colleges for Obama, and 191 for Romney.
That means that, to reach an outright majority and victory, Obama needs another 74, while Romney needs another 79.
The crucial issue of the ‘swing states’, where nobody is really sure of the outcome, is that they count for a total of 151 Electoral Colleges. So the mathematics mean that this could, in theory, become very, very, very tight (did I mention that before?).
Both camps have reportedly invested in retaining the services of high-flying lawyers in case tonight sees a replay of that notorious outcome in 2000.
20H30: G.T.: Over now to my colleague Sue Landau, chasing comments on the election from here in France…
S.L.: "Romney's position on declaring China a currency manipulator if he were elected has surprised French economist Jacques Mistral. "Romney's declarations on China are completely contrary to the interests of his followers," Mistral, head of economics at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), told BFM Business TV channel."
20H20: G.T.: My colleague Patricia Brett has very helpfully provided a quick rundown on when results will start rolling in, especially in those crucial ‘swing states’ where the battle will be separately won and lost by the two candidates. Over to you Patricia…
P.B.: “Polls start to close as of 6pm local time in the United States but because of the time differences between the East and the West coast – not to mention within a single state – results will be staggered coming in.
The East coast start the results rolling as the polls close there first.
Exit polls should be available for swing state Virginia around 7pm Eastern Standard Time – that’s 1am in France. Ohio, another state getting much attention – it is said that Romney needs Ohio to win the election – should publish estimates around 7:30pm EST, so that’s around 1.30 a.m. in France.
Forecasts from Pennsylvania, Florida, New Hampshire and Michigan are expected a half hour later at 8pm EST.
Estimates from Texas should be available around 9pm local time and Colorado polls shut at 10pm EST so now we’re creeping up to 3.a.m. in France.
States such as California and Oregon, however, will not close their polls before 11pm EST, which is 4a.m. in France.
With the race expected to be very tight, the final outcome may not be known until it’s dawn in Europe.”
G.T.: Right, well with those times and if that Dixville Notch result (what a lovely name) is anything to go by, this is going to be a long, long night.
20h05: G.T.: WE'RE OFF! Right, let’s take a quick look at what’s happened so far.
Well, the very first results are in, from the village of Dixville Notch in New Hampshire, which was also the first place to vote, just after midnight Monday local time. The tiny electorate gave five votes for Barack Obama and five for Mitt Romney, underlining, in its own small way, just how tight this election is.
Despite the havoc wrought by Sandy last week, the storm does not appear to have dampened turnout in New Jersey and New York, where the numbers of voters are reported to be high.
Meanwhile, the two latest national opinion polls, by Washington Post/ABC News and the Pew Research Center, both give Obama a 3-point lead over his rival Romney.
The two men continued with campaigning on Tuesday, including radio interviews, while Romney also travelled to Cleveland in the crucial swing state of Ohio, before travelling on to Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania. He’s due to hold an election night meeting in Boston, while Obama is to attend a rally in a Chicago convention centre.
The importance of Ohio is such that Vice-President Joe Biden also made a surprise visit to Cleveland on Tuesday.
The two candidates have cast their own votes – Romney did so earlier today in Belmont, Massachusetts while Obama gave his vote last month in Chicago. That makes him one of more than 30 million voters who have already cast their votes before polling began today, made possible by laws in 30 states that allow early voting.
A reminder: 130 million people took part in the 2008 presidential election.