The Russian strikes against civilians and civilian targets in recent days have spurred the French government to announce new military aid to Ukraine. On top of a “special fund” of 100 million euros to help Ukraine buy French military equipment – which by good fortune also helps fill the order books of France's defence companies – the Élysée has hinted at a possible further delivery of Caesar howitzers.
Following a meeting of the country's national defence and security council on October 10th, President Macron repeated that France has “taken new measures to support Ukraine militarily and provide for the needs of its people”. Two days later the head of state confirmed that France would join other nations in sending air-defence systems to Ukraine.
However, these measures won't alter the fact that up to now the military assistance provided to Kyiv by France has been very low in comparison with that given by other allied countries.
Enlargement : Illustration 1
For a while the exact level of this military aid was unknown. Since the start of the war in Ukraine the Élysée has insisted that it has indeed helped the Ukrainians militarily. But at the same time it has refused to divulge details of the equipment sent, in order to avoid “giving information on potential Ukrainian vulnerabilities” to the Russians, as a spokesperson for France's Ministry of the Armed Forces stated in March. This need for “discretion” was reaffirmed as recently as October 3rd by armed forces minister Sébastien Lecornu, who told the National Assembly that it was the result of a “request” from the “Ukrainians themselves”.
It is not a very convincing argument. If the Ukrainians really need details of weapons sent to them to be kept secret, why do they allow their American and German allies to publish long lists each month setting out precisely both the number and type of equipment provided?
For instance, an American list officially published on September 8th states: “Over 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems; over 8,500 Javelin anti-armor systems; … 126 155mm Howitzers and up to 807,000 155mm artillery rounds; 20 105mm Howitzers and 144,000 105mm artillery rounds; … 200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers; 40 MaxxPro Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles with mine rollers...”
In reality, it seems that this requirement for “discretion” is, more than anything, a useful pretext for hiding the low level of French aid.
Meanwhile a German think tank that specialises in economic issues, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, has been compiling all the available data on international aid that goes to Ukraine, apart from private donations. On October 11th its researchers published an updated version of this important database.
With a total of 1.145 billion euros in financial, military and humanitarian aid, France is listed in seventh place (or eighth if one includes European institutions) in terms of the level of support for Kyiv, behind the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, Poland and Norway.
Graphic above: Total aid to Ukraine, with France behind the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland. Total amounts allocated between January 24th and October 3rd 2022, in billions of euros.
This support represents a tiny fraction of the total budget of the French state in 2022. The amount involved is, for example, lower than the money allocated in the state budget for “monitoring road traffic and parking” or for “advance payments to public broadcasters”.
Graphic above: Bilateral aid to Ukraine is the equivalent of 0.13% of the French state's budget for 2022. Main expenditure by the French state in billions of euros.
If one limits the Kiel Institute list just to military aid (thus excluding financial and humanitarian help), France then finds itself in 12th place, with an estimated 216 million euros. This sum corresponds to the value of 17 Caesar howitzers and the TRF1 cannons, Milan anti-tank missiles, Mistral air defence missiles and various other items sent by Paris. France drops even further on military aid - to 22nd place in the table - if the support provided is expressed as a proportion of the country's wealth (using GDP as the measure).
Graphic above: In terms of military aid to Ukraine as a percentage of GDP, the Baltic states are the main contributors, far ahead of France. Level of military aid shown here as a percentage of a country's GDP in 2021.
The French authorities, and in particular the Ministry of the Armed Forces, have raised several objections to this form of classification. Some are valid, others not.
“In general the classifications only take into account what is promised and not actually delivered. I don't want to say more, so as not to provoke an incident with our friends and allies, but in fact what France has promised has, almost to the exact item, actually been given to the Ukrainians,” armed forces minister Sébastien Lecornu said on October 3rd.
Yet according to the Kiel Institute data, even when one takes into account just military equipment that has been delivered, France's ranking is a modest one: rising up to ninth spot among countries which have contributed.
Graphic above: Military aid to Ukraine: France is in twelfth spot among donor countries. Figures show sums paid in billions of euros from January 24th to October 3rd 2022.
Another argument put forward by the authorities is that the level of French military support is “under-estimated” because the German think tank works solely from public data (official statements, press articles and so on). If these open sources only mention the equipment but not the prices, the Kiel Institute researchers provide their own estimates of the cost.
This objection is understandable. For even though the “number of artillery pieces, portable air-defence systems, armoured vehicles and anti-tank weapons supplied by Germany” seems, for example “clearly greater than that from France”, the “figures for French military aid to Ukraine are perhaps under-estimated,” agrees Pieter Wezeman, a researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
But if the French authorities have indeed sent more aid than the international tables indicate, why have they not revealed the total amount involved? In doing so there would be no risk of exposing the Ukrainian military's “vulnerabilities” as they would just be stating the overall monetary value of the support – not details of the equipment supplied.
“The issue isn't about comparing oneself to others but providing concrete help to Ukraine on the ground. That's what counts,” explains a source at the Ministry for the Armed Forces – as if France has never in the past blown its own trumpet about diplomatic achievements. Until it displays more transparency critics say the French government will struggle to dispel the lingering doubts that it simply wants to hide its modest performance.
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- The original French version of this article can be found here.
English version and additional reporting by Michael Streeter