The fratricidal row that is tearing apart the right-wing opposition party the UMP after a disastrous leadership campaign (see here, here and here) has prompted humour among the ranks of the ruling Socialist Party (PS). Some recall the fallout in their own party when in 2008 Martine Aubry and Ségolène Royal fought a bitter battle for the control of the PS at a party conference at Reims, with Aubry eventually triumphing. “Martine and Ségolène let their lieutenants slug it out but they never went this far,” insists Socialist MP Jean-Marc Germain, an ally of Aubry.
Others recall their own memories of the type of ballot-rigging allegations that have plagued the UMP. “The use of pre-filled proxy votes is exactly what we did during elections at the [students mutual insurance fund] Mnef,” says one party official with a smile.
It is true that in the corridors of the lower house of the French Parliament, the National Assembly, few socialist MPs are overly upset at their rivals' woes. Indeed, the virtual absence of the opposition in recent days means that the government and ruling party have been able to push through legislation at a rapid pace. The loi Duflot, a law designed to make it easier to use public land to build social housing, was adopted in a few hours last week. During debates on the proposed law on the financing of the country's social security system last Monday amendments to the abortion law, on beer taxation and the extension of parental leave to gay couples were passed with ease. The entire text was approved in one evening, even thought the first debates on the law a few weeks ago were very lively.
Since the Parliamentary elections in June the UMP opposition have been very aggressive in the debating chamber. In the last week or so, however, the atmosphere has calmed considerably. “There has been a positive impact,” says Jean-Marc Germain. “For a while the [UMP] are going to have to rein themselves in and calm down.”
In fact, some MPs from the ruling Socialist Party and their allies have complained – jokingly - that the UMP's very public squabbles have distracted attention from Parliament – and from them. “Ah, how very strange to see a journalist still interested in us...we work but no one takes any notice any more!” jokes MP Denis Baupin from the green alliance Europe Écologie - Les Verts (EELV). “We have the feeling we're on holiday!” says socialist MP Annick Lepetit.
But for a number the humour and feeling of satisfaction at their opponents' troubles is short-lived. “The positive aspect [in Parliament] is that things go more quickly,” says Thierry Mandon, spokesman for the PS bloc of MPs in Parliament. “The negative side is there is no fundamental debate.”
And concern is growing about the potential consequences for the entire political landscape. “Over and above the short-term celebrations, like seeing that the [Parliamentary] censure proposed by [ new UMP president Jean-François] Copé [editor's note; intended to force the government to debate its strategy before MPs] is no longer happening, there is something of a structural concern,” admits an advisor to President François Hollande. “And that is seeing the Right fall apart and the [far-right] Front National reaping the rewards without doing anything.”
So far the policy at the Elysée Palace seems to be to ignore the Right's woes, at least in public. “Officially we don't make statements, make no digs, no allusions to it,” say the advisor. “There's no question of behaving like [then President Nicolas] Sarkozy did after the Reims conference, when he behaved like he was the PS's director of human resources. We've seen where that can lead...”
Another source close to the president simply refused to make any strategic predictions. “We don't give a damn about it, we're not interested in it. What we are interested in is what we are doing, and in the country.” However the source did criticize the behaviour of the UMP hierarchy. “It all gives a terrible image of politics, when our problems are [the threatened steel works at] Florange and the rocketing unemployment rate. The president of the socialist group in Parliament Bruno Le Roux, though, believes that the government and ruling party have an opportunity to underline their credibility by focussing on the government’s actions. “It's a good scenario for us,” he says.
Time to resume the 'ideological battle'?
In the longer term, however, not many in the socialist ranks take comfort from the UMP's implosion. Some predict a more aggressive approach from the right. “Whatever happens we will be up against a more radicalised Right who will intensify their efforts after their over-the-top leadership campaign,” notes a source at the Elysée Palace. “Whether that's to help reunite them or to make them stand out from others on the Right.”
Others are concerned about the overall impact on the standing of politicians and politics in France. “It's been a very bad advertisement for democracy,” says Bruno Le Roux. And Jean-Marc Germain says: “The discredit of the UMP has a knock-on effect on the entire political class and undermines general credibility.”
Many MPs share the Elysée's concern that the UMP's problems will pave the way for other parties to gain support. “Fundamentally it's very bad news,” says Gwenegan Bui, an MP in Brittany in the west of France. “We see a concrete example here in Brittany where the centre is being reinforced by strays from the Right to become, once again, a serious rival for us.” He also believes that with the more right-wing Copé as head of the UMP and no counterweighting force in the centre-right opposition against him, the far-right Front National (FN) will be the main beneficiaries. “Remember that the FN was already strong in 2012 even with the Right lined up behind Sarko [editor's note, Nicolas Sarkozy]. So with a Right that's exploded, it doesn't look good for [elections in] 2014, 2015 and 2017.”
However, the PS senator Laurence Rossignol is more sanguine about the long-term impact of the Right's problems on the Left and politics in general. “I don't confuse the UMP with the Republic itself. The democratic crisis in the UMP is not the country's democratic crisis. I am not going to shed any crocodile tears.”
A key question that remains is which political direction the ruling Left should take given the current political vacuum on the Right. “Right now the situation could allow us to regain the initiative, to be able to impose once again something of a Left agenda, without the government becoming paralysed,” says one MP on the left of the PS. It's a view shared by Emmanuel Maurel, a rising figure on the the party's left who was defeated in the recent PS leadership contest but who did unexpectedly well with 30% of the vote. “There are now two scenarios for the ruling party faced with the Right in disarray,” he says. “One is the temptation to move to the centre, a process which it has to be said is already well under way anyway, targeting centrist voters sickened by the Right. The other is to opt to bring together the whole Left to play up the contrast with a divided Right. That would be betting on the ideological solidarity of the socialists, faced with the liberal ideology that has led to the internal violence on the Right.”
Maurel is hopeful. “If that last one is not yet the scenario chosen by the government, we can certainly see that some members appreciate the dangers of moving to the centre, such as [industry minister Arnaud] Montebourg who has been converted to the cause of nationalisation [of the steelworks] at Florange or [minister for social economy Benoît] Hamon, who is going to sign agreements with Venezuela. It's the time to take advantage of the situation to resume the ideological battle.”
However, more and more Socialist MPs are concluding that the government has no intention of taking advantage of the current chaos among its opponents to go back on its recent conversion to social liberalism
'We are at a pivotal moment in the presidency'
In fact the disarray of the opposition has allowed the government – at least for now – to stifle a potentially explosive debate within the ruling party. This is over the 'business competitiveness' package announced last month to help reduce the financial burden on companies and thus help boost employment. The 20 billion euro measure, which comes in the form of tax credits, will be financed by an increase in Value Added Tax in 2014 and further savings on public expenditure. In theory this package was not due to be debated in Parliament until January, but will now be discussed in the coming week.
The accelerated timetable has been justified by President François Hollande on the grounds that “every day counts now”, especially in the wake of the recent terrible unemployment figures. But it has not pleased every Socialist MP, especially those who want the government to put more and tougher conditions on those companies that want to benefit from the new tax credit. So far there are no plans for automatic checks on the use of the money and no conditional criteria for who gets the tax breaks, while the prime minister Jean-Marc Ayrault has indicated that the measure will now be rolled out even more quickly, over two rather than three years. All of which confirms, to critics, that the government is turning towards supply-side rather than demand-led economics, an approach which is not really in the Socialist Party's DNA.
Last week Socialist MPs from the parliamentary finance committee had a chance to express their differences with government policy during a visit to the prime minister's office. “We have gone from a discussion on competitiveness and industry to an unconditional and undifferentiated financing that was being called for by [the employers' organisation] Medef!” complained Paris MP Pascal Cherki, a member of the left wing of the party, who talks about “great uneasiness” within the PS group on the committee. Some MPs want banks and large supermarket chains to be excluded from the measure but the government has refused, saying it would be too complicated. Nonetheless Cherki will try to lay down an amendment aimed at removing any stock exchange-listed company from eligibility for the tax credits.
In recent days meetings of the committee have become more animated and MPs did succeed in getting accepted some amendments that would, for example, oblige firms to state in their annual accounts what they have done with the tax credit. “It's very little,” admits Thomas Thévenoud, an MP for the Saône-et-Loire department or county in eastern France. “But then we started with very little! We really had to organise ourselves to get even that,” he said, a sign that the government wants as simple and uncluttered a measure as possible. “It's not that we are against businesses, but it is 20 billion euros after all!” adds Thévenoud.
A number of MPs say they feel as if they are caught up in an unstoppable chain of events. “We are at a pivotal moment in the presidency,” says one MP who asked not to be named. “This episode will leave its mark. Within the group the anger is silent but real. The law will be voted through without any doubt. But, and without it being obvious, the choice really has now been made to favour social democracy,” says the MP. He adds: “If that allows the economy to bounce back, great. But if in a few years we realise that it doesn't work, the president's [five-year] term of office risks ending badly.” Whether or not there is effective opposition from the UMP.
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English version: Michael Streeter