In the end he knew that he was virtually entirely alone. And so at 8 p.m. local time President François Hollande, speaking live on television from the Elysée Palace, said that he would not put himself forward as a candidate for the 2017 presidential election. It is the first time a president in France's Fifth Republic has declined to seek re-election and came after a difficult presidency in which, little by little, the head of state has provoked despair among his own electorate, his political camp, his political family and many of his friends.
“I am today aware of the risks that going down a route that would not gather sufficient support would entail, so I have decided not to be a candidate in the presidential election,” said an at times emotional Hollande in a ten-minute declaration. However he did not anoint any candidate to succeed him and made no mention of his prime minister, Manuel Valls, who himself greeted Hollande's decision as that of a “statesman”. Valls added: “I want to tell François Hollande of my emotion, my respect, my loyalty and my affection.”
Addressing the nation, Hollande said that “in the months to come my only duty will be to continue to lead the country, [the duty] which you conferred on me in 2012, by devoting myself fully and with the utmost devotion to the Republic”. The president continued: “I must lead the state, I have the responsibility to ensure the regular working of the institutions, in a context in which the terrorist threat has never been so high. I cannot accept the Left drifting apart, or breaking up. For my part I am motivated only by the higher interests of this country. The country that I have served with sincerity and honesty … But the exercise of power and the rituals of governing have never led to me losing my lucidity,” he said, explaining why he had come to his decision. Hollande then called for a “collective” movement involving all progressives who, he said, “have to unite”.
Just before setting out his reasons for quitting, Hollande had outlined his record in office, including controlling the public finances, protecting the social security system, the COP 21 climate agreement in Paris, school reforms, same-sex marriage rights, reforms to stop politicians holding more than one office at a time, local government reform, reducing unemployment (even if this was still “too high”), his foreign policy in the Central African Republic, Mali and in Syria, and his fight against terrorism. The president set out what he saw as his achievements knowing that no one will do it on his behalf now that he is not standing again.
The French president admitted “certain regrets” and “delays”, but the only regret he spelled out was his ultimately unsuccessful attempt to deprive convicted terrorists of French nationality if they possessed dual nationality. The move, which foundered in the spring of 2016, split the Left and left an indelible stain on his presidency as far as many supporters were concerned.
François Hollande's decision came after several weeks of high tension at the highest levels of state, and after a drama lasting several days that was provoked by Valls himself. Last Sunday, November 27th, the prime minister spoke in a newspaper interview of his own desire to be a candidate for the presidency and systematically attacked François Hollande. It provoked apoplexy at the Elysée and threatened to spark what some called a constitutional crisis.
On Monday, as Hollande and Valls met for a crucial lunch, some ministerial advisers got ready to pack their bags, were briefly reassured, then started clearing their desks again. “We're completely in the dark but we've started sending out CVs,” said one. As late as Thursday one advisor told Mediapart: “It feels like a reshuffle coming.” A presidential aide said: “François Hollande is really hesitating. If he loses the primary [editor's note, the Socialist Party's January primary to choose their presidential candidate for 2017] what would it look like for him? But if he doesn't stand, then for six months the entire political class is going to wipe their feet on him and no one will defend his record … for someone who's obsessed by the mark he leaves on history, it's a difficult decision.”
Hollande's book was 'a genuine shock' for Manuel Valls
It was the publication of a book in October by journalists Fabrice Lhomme and Gérard Davet 'Un président ne devrait pas dire ça…' ('A President Should Not Say That') that really opened the floodgates for the attacks on the president. It appeared to break something inside the ruling Socialist Party; the mistrust towards Hollande had become too great, and it was as if the book freed people's frustrations and disagreements. In his comments in the book the president appeared to be indulging in bar-room politics, attacking his political friends, commenting on all and sundry and angering judges and footballers. In particular there were his references to confidential conversations with foreign heads of state or government and secret information on extrajudicial assassinations.
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As soon as the book was published Manuel Valls, who has always sworn that he would stay loyal to the president to the bitter end, started making ever more critical comments about the head of state. “Since the book Manuel thinks that defeat is on the cards and that he is the best one to defend the governing Left,” a pro-Hollande minister told Mediapart earlier this week. “The book was a genuine shock for him. It was one ingredient behind the break.” So, too, was the decision by former economy minister Emmanuel Macron, once Hollande's protégé at the Elysée, to stage an independent bid for the presidency.
Meanwhile socialist Members of Parliament felt aggrieved, angry and tired. “They're not happy,” a parliamentary advisor noted in the week. Members of ministerial offices became worried as did many ministers themselves. On the ground many Socialist Party (PS) activists swore to their MPs that they would not campaign on behalf of François Hollande if he stood in 2017. “We feel spat on from on high,” said one angry minister. It felt as if the last remaining damn of the presidency, already weakened by the turn towards supply-side economic policies, controversial employment law reforms, the attempts to remove nationality from terrorists and the rise of the far-right Front National, had given way.
In recent weeks several ministers had begun to keep their distance. Even some people close to the president had let it be known that they were against their friend standing again, and it was said that even Hollande's children -from his former partner and senior minister Ségolène Royal – were against the idea. One who opposed Hollande standing again was his long standing supporter, defence minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. The reasons why supporters did not want the president to stand again included a desire to avoid Hollande being humiliated, and a feeling of dismay over the way the presidency had failed. The latest opinion polls also spread panic. Though they are of limited meaning so far before the spring's presidential vote, Hollande's team could see that he was at this stage only likely to attract 7% to 9% in the first round of the election.
Hollande's announcement will now change things on the Left as the presidential election looms. One assumes that after a respectful interval Manuel Valls will announce his candidacy in the socialist primary in January. He will then surely have to resign as prime minister, in which post he will be replaced by a Hollande loyalist; the names most cited are health minister Marisol Touraine and interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve.
In the primary Valls will take on his former ministers Benoît Hamon and Arnaud Montebourg. The prime minister believes that he can bring together government supporters more effectively than President Hollande, by seeking to distance himself on occasions from some of the presidency's record.
It is far from certain, however, that Valls can find enough support. Before the controversial book's publication he had not really managed to widen the circle of government loyalists, and in the primary in 2011 he only picked up 5% of the vote. Moreover Valls's emphasis on the politics of identity and his authoritarian approach does not attract everyone in the PS.
One Hollande supporter, who had hoped the president would stand again, said he did not really want to choose between the politics of Valls and those of the more left-wing Montebourg. Some may be tempted to look elsewhere. “If Hollande doesn't stand, 80% of the PS will head for Macron,” one ex-minister claimed to Mediapart a month ago. On the day of Hollande's declaration a ministerial advisor said: “It's an absolute nightmare.” It's a “nightmare” that has, however, already swept away the main protagonists of 2012, first Nicolas Sarkozy and now François Hollande, and has made a mockery of predictions that next year's elections were a foregone conclusion.
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- The French version of this article can be found here.
English version by Michael Streeter