Ségolène Royal: the return of the prodigal daughter

UpdateUpdate 30/11: this article was first published before Ségolène Royal announced her bid to become Soacialist Party presidential candidate in elections due in 2012.

Just one year ago, Ségolène Royal, the former French Socialist Party presidential candidate who lost to Nicolas Sarkozy in the final round of voting in 2007, was circling a political wilderness.

Increasingly criticised and ostracised by many Socialists since her 2007 defeat, after which she fought and lost a bitter battle for party leadership to Martine Aubry, her supporters were pushing for her to break away and forge a new political identity.

It was a bleak situation for Royal, who has never hidden her ambition for leading a second attempt for the presidency in the next elections due in May, 2012.

So it was that, last winter, she focused her energies on re-election as president of the Poitou-Charentes Regional Council, in a ballot held in March 2010. In the event, Royal obtained the second best score of all Socialist Party (PS)incumbents nationwide, and this large region in western France, which she heads since March 2004, has become her political castle and showcase.

But now Royal, 57, in a remarkable comeback orchestrated over just several months, has returned to the bosom of France's main opposition party. The timing is of course anything but accidental, coming eight months before its presidential hopefuls will all have to declare themselves as candidates for selection in primaries, due in November 2011. With unity the party order of the day, Royal has negotiated a public peace with those she was formerly pitted against.

"Her return to the fold of the PS, which began last May with the 'winning plan'¹ proposal, is the fruit of several months of reflection," said her spokesman, Guillaume Garot. "But it is also a lesson drawn from what she was missing in 2007, when the Socialist Party apparatus was against her –which made winning the presidential election difficult," claimed Garot, who represents the north-west Mayenne département (county) in the French parliament.

"She's shown that the new-found unity depends on her and that she is capable of imposing this unity on everybody," added Dominique Bertinotti, another member of her close entourage and the mayor of the 4^th arrondissement (district) of Paris,

Sophie Bouchet-Petersen is Royal's speechwriter and political adviser. "Ségo² had to sort out a few things in her head and to let time do its work," she said. "Now everything is clear to her. Her ideas are sharpened and she knows very well where she is headed".

Royal called for unity at the party's annual summer conference at La Rochelle, even declaring she might very well stand backstage in favour of other potential presidential hopefuls like Socialist first secretary, Martine Aubry, or former finance minister and current head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominique Strauss-Kahn. Then she had breakfast with Laurent Fabius, another of the party heavyweights and who had been one of her fiercest critics in the past.

Her flamboyant return to the party mainstream even saw her take on the role of representing the PS in a televised debate on the highly controversial national pension reforms, a major hot, political potatoe, after Aubry declined to participate. Her television appearance was prepared in concert with Socialist Party staff and during the show, party spokesman Benoît Hamon and European MP Harlem Désir could be seen nodding approval in the background.

"That's when Ségolène showed both her strength and what she can bring to the Socialist Party," said Bertinotti. "She has presented a position that is much easier to understand, where before there was silence or a lack of clarity. She has set out a strong policy line that is easy to grasp."

At party headquarters, few deny a ladies' agreement between Aubry and Royal. One of Aubry's advisors, speaking anonymously, said it was not about love rekindled, more a question of a common interest: "It's in our interest to be a part of Ségolène's change in strategy. Meanwhile, she has understood that the more she derides us, the more she plummets in the opinion polls."

"It must be understood that no matter what happens, Martine [Aubry] will be held responsible for the Party's situation," he added. "She isn't like [previous Socialist first secretary, François] Holland³ who took advantage of his position to develop his network. Reconciliation and general unity improve the legitimacy of the apparatus and neutralises the shouting matches, all of which makes Martine's voice better heard."

Those in Royal's entourage recognise that it would be politically suicidal to upset the apple cart now with dissent. Nothing must divide or weaken the party, they said, adding that Aubry had the intelligence to respond favourably to Royal's proposals.

"We have more to lose in leaving Royal by the wayside than in giving her a full role within the party," an advisor to Aubry commented anonymously. "It's very Mitterrand-like, actually," he added, in reference to former Socialist president François Mitterrand's successful methods at keeping the party presidential hopefuls and their supporters in line.

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1: Royal presented an idea baptised 'Dispositif gagnant ' whereby the Socialist primaries to elect a presidential candidate would include a debating procedure.

2: Ségolène Royal is popularly nicknamed 'Ségo' in France, both by the public and in the media.

3: François Hollande is Ségolène Royal's former husband. The couple split up during the 2007 presidential campaign while he was still Socialist Party first secretary.

'She's not a lefty, but she is radical'

Royal's strategy is akin to what in car racing is called slipstreaming: cruising in the air pocket created by the car in front, saving her energy and ready to leap ahead at the next turn. But before that can happen, she has to get the pit stops right. These include recognising Martine Aubry as the head of the Socialists and helping to create the unity to which everyone aspires, while continuing to have a voice in the decision-making process. At the same time Royal is decided on complicating any possible return of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, a major favourite to become the next Socialist presidential candidate, in case Martine Aubry withdraws from the race. Royal already beat him once during primaries in 2007, and his candidacy from the 'Right' of the party could create for her an opening on the Left, towards which she is leaning more and more.

As opposed to other Socialist Party leaders, Royal has not been coy in grabbing opportunities to hit out at President Nicolas Sarkozy's ruling UMP party. She spoke up over the scandal surrounding Labour Minister Eric Woerth¹, denouncing a "corrupt Sarkozy system", and on pension reform. "Ségolène strikes out because she is true to herself," claims her advisor, Bouchet-Petersen. "She isn't a lefty but she is radical. She's the one who is best heard by the French people, she doesn't act like a ‘pouty technocrat'. Her actions are in line with the mood of the moment which calls for both a fighting spirit and unity. What counts the most right now is to do one's best by participating in the collective battle against the main enemy, Sarkozy."

"If Royal is so forceful, it's because her return to the party is legitimised by the fact that the Socialist Party is, at the moment, putting forward ideas drawn directly from her 2007 presidential platform," argues Royal's spokesman Guillaume Garot. "After the quarrels of yesteryear over security issues, we have now found a consensus. Sustainable growth was included in the party convention's project for a new economic model. Renewing the party, primaries and the rule against multiple mandates² were among the major issues of the last party congress."

Dominique Bertinotti added: “In today's context unity and party action are necessary but contact with people, and having a direct relationship with the French public, are a definite advantage. The Festival of Fraternity³ allows her to show up that side of her. Just because she's talking to the party again in a constructive manner doesn't mean she's going to give up her capacity to inspire."

This year's festival saw no grand one-woman show like the one in Paris in 2008, nor was it reserved to a small circle of devoted supporters as in 2009. Invitations spanned the leaders of the many currents eddying within the party, like Manuel Valls, Arnaud Montebourg, Claude Bartolone or Olivier Ferrand for example. Not forgetting the last minute guest-star: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the Partie de Gauche (Party of the Left), created in February 2009 by disgruntled PS members who protested the party had veered too far to the Right.

Mélenchon, who was refused entry to the La Rochelle event organised by PS spokesman Benoît Hammon, was even invited to take part in debate –with Denis Sieffert, managing director of the left-leaning weekly Politis, on the merits of a referendum on pension reform (which he and Royal are the only politicians to support).

Jean-Pierre Mignard, former chair of Royal's 'party within a party', Désirs d'avenir⁴, (and he is also a lwayer for Mediapart), who has since distanced himself from her for a year, was also there. "It was a pleasure for me because we haven't seen each other for a long time," he explained. "I go wherever I'm invited, in the same way that I joined the Convention for a VIth Republic⁵, the same way I participate in debates organised by François Hollande's club […...] her radical position can be useful, especially in relation to the rest of the left. In any case, she will be one of the people to deal with during the presidential campaign and she's today one of the top four contenders for the [presidential] candidacy, along with Aubry, Strauss-Kahn and Hollande. If the risk that the primary is transformed into a party congress is avoided, she will have an even chance."

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1: Scandal relating to party financing and conflicts of interest revealed by the Bettencourt affair. Eric Woerth, close to President Sarkozy, had to step down as treasurer of the ruling UMP party. As labour minister he was responsible for shepherding the controversial pension reform bill through parliament.

2: Multiple mandates, such as simultaneously occupying the position of mayor and that of Member of Parliament, has long been a common practice among French politicians.

3: Annual political gathering organised by Royal. The fourth was held in September 2010.

4: Roughly translated as Wishes for the Future, Désirs d'avenir is Royal's association of supporters, created for the 2007 presidential campaign.

5: France's present constitution, adopted at the urging of General Charles de Gaulle in 1958, established the Vth Republic. Over the past decade there have been persistent calls for a constitutional overhaul and the formation of a VIth Republic, led notably by Arnaud Montebourg, a leading figure in the Socialist Party.

'She's the only one with ideas that appeal'

"We are not in candidate mode right now," said Garot. "The question for Ségolène is simply to bring her contribution to the reconstruction of the party's general credibility." Referring to the fact that presidential candidates must announce themselves in June 2011, he commented: "We will respect the schedule adopted and then we'll see what people want and how determined they are." But he adds: "One thing is certain, she's the only one to have a presidential election under her belt, to know how tough and demanding it is."

Ségolène Royal remains nonetheless "trapped in a contradiction", according to political sciences professor Rémi Lefebvre, a specialist in Socialist politics who teaches at Reims University. "The strategy of by-passing the party only works if the party is in poor shape," he argued. "By playing the unity line, she concedes that the party is doing well, but unity is of benefit to Aubry. Royal has distinguished herself by going off-limits, but that's going to become more complicated in the coming months. Her fate is tied to that of Martine Aubry."

Given the current disarray of the PS – with its waves of new political currents and presidential candidate teams hampered by indecision – maintaining the structure of Désirs d'avenir gives her another certain advantage. Even though it has been put on hold and is now largely decentralised, the association of Ségolène Royal supporters still boasts about 7,000 members (down from a high of 10,000). It represents a small, campaign war machine which, said Sophie Bouchet-Petersen, is made up of supporters who display "a fascinating loyalty, without any promise of reward." Having such an "interface between the apparatus and the population" could work well with open primaries which would include all left-leaning sympathisers and would go beyond just the PS party faithful, she said.

Remi Lefebvre warns that Royal has lost the novelty she had when Socialist candidate during the 2007 presidential elections, when her defeat left her tarred as 'the woman who lost to Sarkozy' for some sections of opinion. "But she still has one ace up her sleeve - a base in working-class areas and the [disadvantaged] suburbs where she's the only one whose ideas have an appeal," added Lefebvre.

Royal is motivated, prepared and waiting to pounce ahead. Between now and next June, the masks are set to drop.

English version: Patricia Brett