As France’s socialists look ahead with trepidation to next year’s presidential election, their temptation is to see President François Hollande’s unpopularity as the left’s biggest problem, writes the Financial Times.
Five years into the job, Mr Hollande has catastrophic ratings and attracts almost routine public derision. The publication this week of a collection of candid interviews has heaped yet more embarrassment on an already chastened president, including the revelation from his own lips that he hopes for his own party’s suicide. In a country that expects almost monarchical dignity from its leaders, this is electoral hemlock. Mr Hollande’s latest approval ratings have unsurprisingly plummeted to just 4 per cent.
His plight raises the spectre of humiliation for the socialists in next June’s presidential election. This has encouraged some of his present and former colleagues to consider their chances, including the youthful ex-economy minister Emmanuel Macron, who has formed his own liberal movement, “En Marche” to burnish his prospects. The prime minister, Manuel Valls, might also consider a run.
But it would be unwise to see Mr Hollande’s removal from the scene as some sort of game-changing moment. Alone, his withdrawal, unprecedented for an incumbent president in the history of the fifth republic, would not solve his party’s predicament. The problem lies within the party itself.
Mr Hollande became the socialist candidate last time round because he was the single figure who could unite all the factions in a deeply divided party. Traditionally an uneasy alliance between liberals and traditional Marxists, the left has had no answer to the country’s economic problems and the rise of populism. The president’s skill as a long-serving party secretary was to be a consensus-builder. But this approach has not worked in government. As president, he has been a weak leader unable to bring along his own supporters, let alone the country.
Any replacement would have to find a way to pull the socialist party to face up to its challenges. This will not be easy, at a time when the French economy remains fragile and the need for unpopular structural reforms is still pressing. Behind everything is the fear that too liberal a candidate might cause traditional voters to leach off to Marine Le Pen’s National Front.