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French, Italian economies send mixed messages

The two large eurozone economies both post conflicting signs, with flickers of improvement tempered by steadily rising unemployment.

La rédaction de Mediapart

This article is freely available.

Two of the euro zone's largest economies gave tentative signs of improvement Thursday, but any optimism about the outlook was tempered by more evidence that unemployment continues to grind higher, reports The Wall Street Journal.

French jobless data released by the Labor Ministry showed the number of unemployed people rose for the 19th consecutive month in November, with category A job seekers—people registered as fully unemployed but seeking work—topping 3.1 million in mainland France, up 0.9% from October.

"The increase in the number of unemployed in France has been continuing since 2008 and has been particularly strong in the past year and a half," the ministry said.

The labor data overshadowed slightly brighter information from elsewhere in the economy earlier Thursday. The central statistics bureau Insee said consumer confidence rose in December, despite rising unemployment and the gloomy outlook.

And elsewhere, President François Hollande's efforts to shore up public finances in the euro zone's second-largest economy appeared to bear fruit, with news of a decline in the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product in the third quarter.

Meanwhile in neighboring Italy, the national statistics agency Istat said confidence among manufacturers rose for the second month in a row in December. Incoming orders, the most forward-looking component of the index, were its strongest element. However, Istat's broader measure of business confidence, which includes the retail, services and construction sectors, fell to 75.4 in December from a revised 76.5 in November. That was its lowest level in nearly seven years.

Confidence in Italy remains under pressure amid the uncertain political outlook. The country is scheduled to hold general elections in late February, and large parts of both wings of Italian politics are questioning the austerity-focused policies of Mario Monti, the departing technocrat prime minister.

The rise in the French consumer-confidence index—to 86 from 84 in November—was the first since May. Insee said consumers sounded more confident in their future living standards, but were afraid unemployment would rise.

Insee estimated this month that the economy would contract in the last quarter of 2012 and grow only modestly in the first half of 2013. If that forecast is correct, a rapid acceleration in growth would be needed in the second half for the government to deliver on its plan to bring the deficit down to 3% of GDP from an estimated 4.5% in 2012.

In a separate announcement, Insee said the debt stock of public administrations fell to €1.818 trillion ($2.4 trillion) at the end of September from the previous quarter, a drop of €14.5 billion, amid a decline in the indebtedness of central state administrations.

That left it at 89.9% of GDP, down from 91%. The French government still expects the debt ratio to peak at 91.3% at the end of next year before starting to fall in 2014.

Read more of this article from The Wall Street Journal.