It was a change of schedule that was laden with symbolism. Emmanuel Macron was meant to end Friday June 13th with a speech on Palestine, peace in the Middle East and the two-state solution. In the end that speech was cancelled and replaced by a press conference on the situation in the region following the Israeli air strikes on Iran the night before.
Before he was asked a single question, the French president solemnly and clearly declared: “Israel has the right, like every people, to live free from the fear of annihilation and danger.” That day, and the ones that followed, France reserved its harshest words for Tehran, which bore “heavy responsibility for destabilising the region” due to the “acceleration of its nuclear and ballistic programme”, the French head of state said.
It was during that same press conference that Emmanuel Macron confirmed the postponement of the Palestine recognition conference he was to co-host in New York with the Saudi Crown Prince, from June 18th to 20th. “What sense would such a conference make if all the region’s leaders are stuck at home, for obvious reasons?” argued the president, who at the later G7 summit in Canada got involved in a brief war of words with President Donald Trump over efforts to stop the Israel-Iran conflict.
Enlargement : Illustration 1
So within the space of a few hours existing French diplomacy had been swept aside by Israel's attack on Iran. The possibility of France recognising the state of Palestine has been shelved, at least for now. Forgotten, too, during a catchup phone call between the two leaders, was the two-month simmering row between Emmanuel Macron and Benjamin Netanyahu. The moment now called for a reassessment of positions, in light of the “new phase”, as the French president put it on June 13th.
A radical break with past policy
France’s new stance resembles diplomatic gymnastics. In the same breath, the president said that France was ready to “take part in operations to protect and defend Israel” while reaffirming his opposition to the “unjustifiable humanitarian blockade” imposed by the Israeli state on Gaza and his refusal to “take part in any offensive operation whatsoever”.
A “vague stance,” was how Olivier Faure, the recently re-elected first secretary of the Socialist Party (PS), put it. Bernard Hourcade, a senior research fellow at the CNRS research centre and an expert on the social and political geography of Iran meanwhile described it as a major “break” with existing policy and one which was “completely unexpected”. He said: “President Macron is the first French president in history to back an aggressor nation in this way. This is not the diplomatic tradition of the [French Ministry of Foreign Affairs], it’s aligning with the neoconservative stance of the 2000s.”
Emmanuel Macron’s carefully chosen words in calling for “restraint” - repeated at the G7 summit held in Canada from Monday to Wednesday where he also argued against regime change in Tehran – have not masked France’s alignment with Israel’s alarmist view of Iran’s nuclear programme. Launched without informing France first, the Israeli attacks even earned a measure of approval from the president, who praised outcomes that were “moving in the desired direction”.
The French are like the rest of the West: they’ve been caught out by Netanyahu.
While this alignment between Paris and Tel Aviv over Iran’s nuclear ambitions may come as a surprise now, it is in fact nothing new. Between 2013 and 2015, France had already taken the toughest line on Tehran during negotiations on the international deal initiated by the United States. Netanyahu, already in office at the time, applauded the stance taken by Laurent Fabius, then foreign minister under President François Hollande.
Ten years on, France’s line is now the same, as are the key players involved. Emmanuel Bonne, Macron’s chief diplomatic adviser, was at the time Hollande’s Middle East adviser. His colleague Anne-Claire Legendre, who now also covers the region, held the same post under Fabius.
As a result of the “grave” and “existential” nature of the “Iranian nuclear issue” – to cite Macron’s words – France has decided that the priority is not to criticise the method used by the Netanyahu government. This stance has been attacked by the Left, where calls have grown for the government to “forcefully denounce the choice of force”, as the green Les Écologistes party leader Marine Tondelier put it. “If France doesn’t defend international law at a time when it's being challenged and undermined, then who will?” asked Manuel Bompard, coordinator of the radical-left La France Insoumise (LFI).
Netanyahu’s winning gambit
From Benjamin Netanyahu’s point of view, the first fortnight of June looks like an unexpected reversal of fortune. On Sunday June 15th, the United States and Iran had been due to meet in Oman to continue talks on the nuclear issue. And as already stated, this week the international community had been set to gather in New York for a major conference on recognising the state of Palestine and the two-state solution.
By launching his offensive on Tehran out of the blue, Israel upended a diplomatic calendar that was working against him. The opening of a new front with Iran forced its increasingly-critical Western allies to close ranks. “The French are like the rest of the West: they’ve been caught out by Netanyahu,” said Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, director of the Institut de recherche et d’études Méditerranée/Moyen-Orient (iReMMO).
The prospect of recognising the state of Palestine now feels remote. In the corridors of power in Paris, the language of diplomacy has shifted. Recognition is no longer a “moral imperative” but a bargaining chip, a diplomatic option among others. Once again, presidential advisers are doing all they can to keep their distance from a gesture they say Macron cannot afford to make too soon, or alone, which would have “no real impact” on the ground.
During his press conference on June 13th, the French president insisted the postponement of the New York conference was merely a scheduling issue. Citing “logistical and security” reasons, he said the delay “must not call into question France’s determination” to recognise the state of Palestine. “This is a sovereign decision,” Macron maintained, promising to “set a date in the coming days”.
Such optimism baffles those closely following the issue, given how unlikely the gathering in the US was to succeed. After initially envisioning a sweeping diplomatic move involving both reform of the Palestinian Authority and recognition of Palestine by France and other major Western powers (Japan, Great Britain, Canada), as well as a step towards recognition of Israel by key Arab powers, the French head of state had to face facts.
The sheer scale of the destruction in Gaza and Netanyahu’s obstinacy ended up dissuading Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, from moving towards normalising ties with Israel. And the United States, in no rush to see an alternative emerge to Donald Trump’s approach, appeared to be quietly working behind the scenes to scupper the conference. Even the attendance of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was in doubt on the eve of the Israeli offensive on Iran.
With each passing day, Macron was appearing less and less willing to formally recognise Palestine. “France appeared bold in its dealings with Israel, but stopped short of action,” is the view of Jean-Paul Chagnollaud. “If those bombings hadn’t happened, what would have come of the New York conference? There was clear unease. Very cynically, one could almost say they came at just the right time for French diplomacy. We’ve slipped back into mainstream support for the Israeli state.”
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- The original French version of this article can be found here.
English version by Michael Streeter