For France in the postwar period, the UK has been an indispensable benchmark: the ex-imperial, nuclear twin against which to measure ourselves, and vice versa, writes François Heisbourg in the Financial Times.
Now, Brexit spells potential disaster for France, both as a nation state which, along with Britain, has had justified pretensions to punching above its weight, and as a member state of the EU.
David Cameron had been expected to put the renewal of Britain’s nuclear deterrent before Parliament in the weeks following a Remain vote. This is now unlikely. The so-called Successor programme rests on the assumption that the new nuclear force will continue to be based in Scotland. Rushing a decision through Westminster could send a pro-EU and anti-nuclear Scotland into a headlong rush in a different direction — towards independence. At the very least, sorting out the impact of a vote to Leave in England and Wales on the future of the nuclear base at Faslane and of the nuclear deterrent more generally will cost time and money. France is not enthusiastic about being left exposed as Europe’s sole nuclear power while a politically assertive Russia ramps up its own nuclear capabilities.
At the diplomatic level, the UK will not be a dynamic global player, as most of Whitehall’s energies will be devoted to negotiating with the EU. This will limit France’s ability to put forward diplomatic initiatives which often rely on the ability of our two countries to work together as permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, the pinnacle of diplomatic influence. This inevitable collateral damage could turn into something much worse if the UK fell apart with Scotland seceding and Northern Ireland torn between competing allegiances.