It was barely 9am in Paris, Kamala Harris had not yet conceded defeat, and the main American media outlets were holding back from making any announcement. But that did not stop Emmanuel Macron from being among the first to congratulate Donald Trump on his election to the presidency of the United States. In a post published in both French and English on the social network X, the French president declared that he was “ready to work” once again with his counterpart, who had previously held office from 2016 to 2020.
Ordinary in content, Paris’s communication was most notable for its speed. Among major European and international leaders, only Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán was faster off the mark, hailing the “greatest comeback in American political history”. Even Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, a self-declared “friend” of Trump, did not react as swiftly to celebrate an “enormous victory”. Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom followed suit later.
At the Élysée Palace, officials insist that the president’s haste carries no political significance. “It was just so we could follow it up immediately with a phone call to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz,” explained the head of state's entourage. In terms of content, Emmanuel Macron’s message sought to project a sense of distance. Franco-American cooperation will take place in the context of “your convictions and mine”, wrote Emmanuel Macron to Donald Trump, as if to emphasise that their beliefs are not aligned.
Enlargement : Illustration 1
Behind the diplomatic understatements, the issue at stake is far more serious than a simple change of party and leader in the White House. Donald Trump is not just any Republican candidate: he ran a campaign with supremacist, racist, and reactionary overtones, promising war against “enemies within”, preparing for the deportation of millions of foreigners, and threatening the right to abortion, to such an extent that he has been compared to fascist leaders of the last century.
The prospect of the world's leading power being governed by such a figure, even more extreme than during his first tenure, has not yet sparked public outcry in Paris. Within the corridors of power, ministers and advisers have certainly rolled their eyes in recent weeks at the mere mention of Donald Trump, occasionally referring to the “catastrophe” his election would represent or the dread he inspires.
But none of this could be quoted publicly, our sources emphasised each time, in the name of good diplomatic relations. “The Americans are our allies,” reiterated the minister for Europe, Benjamin Haddad, himself a former international relations scholar in Washington, on France Inter radio on Wednesday morning. “We will work with the elected president, whoever it is. We worked with Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020,” he pointed out.
The day before, the minister of foreign affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot, had been equally composed. “We have survived fifty-nine presidential elections in the United States; we can survive the sixtieth,” he stated on France 2 television. “It's the sovereign choice of the American people, and we will take the president they give us. We're ready to deal with a new Trump administration.”
Ukraine, Gaza: a worrying outlook
On the diplomatic front, however, there are many good reasons to be concerned. Regarding the war in Ukraine, Donald Trump has repeatedly praised his good relationship with Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, and promised to end the conflict “in twenty-four hours”. A proponent of isolationist rhetoric, the Republican candidate has raised fears in Ukraine and among its allies that the United States will withdraw financial and military support.
In the Middle East, the outlook is no more reassuring. During his campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly portrayed himself as Israel's “protector” and a great friend of Benjamin Netanyahu, whom he called on several times to end things in Gaza “quickly”, without providing further details. While the Biden administration has shown some tentative signs of distancing itself from the Israeli government, Donald Trump has promised to continue “as much as necessary” the supply of arms to Tel Aviv.
These prospects do not overly alarm the French executive. “He's unpredictable, but you mustn't think that he's going to trigger a world war in three days,” a senior official at the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, downplaying matters just days before the election. Neither the Élysée nor the government, for example, believe a US withdrawal from Ukraine is likely. “Can you imagine the message that would send to China regarding Taiwan, in terms of respect for borders and sovereignty?” asked one minister. “Essentially it would be saying: go ahead, do what you want! It seems implausible to me.”
Senator Olivier Paccaud from the conservative Les Républicains (LR) party, who is president of the France-US friendship group in the French Senate, is not particularly alarmist either. “We will remain vigilant allies,” said this close ally of former minister and senior party figure Xavier Bertrand. “Economic, environmental and diplomatic issues will no doubt lead to some passionate discussions, perhaps even new major agreements. [But] France has always managed to stay at the negotiating table, even when the guests are, shall we say, a little unpredictable,” he said.
Trump mocked Macron throughout campaign
Diplomatic channels will nonetheless be working at full speed over the coming days, assessing the outlook for Franco-American relations. Beyond the major international issues, questions arise over the future of global climate agreements, given that Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement in the summer of 2017. Economically, his protectionist policies are also worrying professionals in key export sectors, such as luxury goods and wine.
Symbolically, France's prime minister Michel Barnier waited several hours before responding to the US election result, as he is known for his distaste of the kind of hurried communication he accuses the French president and his supporters of making. The prime minister emphasised the “solid foundation of shared values” between the two nations. He called for “close cooperation between our two democracies” and “solidarity between the European Union and the United States of America”.
This subject will take centre stage at the European Political Community (EPC) summit and the informal European Council meeting in Budapest, Hungary, this Thursday and Friday. The timing and location are particularly convenient for Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister, who is a staunch supporter of Donald Trump. Emmanuel Macron, according to his inner circle, will look to call for a “strong and united” European response.
No meeting is currently planned between the two leaders. During his campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly mocked Emmanuel Macron, accusing him of “kissing [Chinese leader] Xi's ass” and recounting - complete with a mock French accent - how he supposedly twisted Macron’s arm during a negotiation over tariffs. “It was very easy,” Trump often sneers when recalling that episode. His words have been no kinder on other occasions, referring to Macron as a “wuss” and as someone with a “very low approval rating”. At other moments Trump has described his French counterpart as “very nice”. But in diplomatic terminology is that really a compliment?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- The original French version of this article can be found here.
English version by Michael Streeter