Is this French presidential election's unpredictability really so unusual?


The chatter about the French presidential election focuses on the likely high abstention rate, the record number of undecided voters, a possible last-minute surge by the Right and whether one can trust the polls. In particular, just under three weeks from the first round of voting, the talk is of how unpredictable and hard to forecast this 2017 election is. But, Hubert Huertas, argues it is no more unpredictable than usual. It is just that when it comes to the mood of voters, the rules have changed.

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It is the fashionable point of view on the subject of the 2017 presidential election and you hear it everywhere: “We've never seen such uncertainty!” This message is doing the rounds on social media, in particular among supporters of those candidates who are struggling, and above all the conservative François Fillon. The observation that everything is in a state of flux allows them to keep hope and give their campaigns a fresh start.