The differences between the French president and his prime minister began notably surfacing as of last summer. This has been in part a tactic with which to manage a left-wing parliamentary majority that has been thrown off balance and split by moves like the government's tax breaks-for-jobs deal with business, the Responsibility Pact, and its recent retreat over a planned bill of law on family issues (including making divorce procedures easier and handing greater rights to step-parents) in face of stern opposition by the traditionalist, mostly right-wing and Catholic, lobby. It is also partly down to amateurism, particularly in the management of their public communications.
But importantly there are also differences in each man's political judgement, both on method and on substance. According to several sources close to them, Ayrault is irritated by Hollande's solitary, tactical and sometimes unpredictable way of operating.
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Some socialists describe Ayrault as more of a social democrat than Hollande. Ayrault has for some time been happy with this perception, while Hollande had sidestepped the label, preferring to call himself a socialist - until his press conference on January 14th when, during his policy speech, he happily adopted the term of social democrat.
Ayrault, says a Member of Parliament (MP) close to him who did not want to be named, is "less social-liberal" than Hollande. The prime minister's office, called the Hôtel Matignon after the building in which it is housed, has more frequently stressed the obligations placed on business in the Responsibility Pact than has the presidency. Ayrault, 64, formerly mayor of the shipbuilding and port city of Nantes, in north-west France, is said to be more inclined than Hollande, 59, to push ahead with social reforms.
While these are more issues of emphasis, unlike the stormy debates the two have with the Left of the Socialist Party, the differences of opinion between the two men appear to be growing over time and can be traced back to their respective reasons for entering politics.
When Ayrault joined the Socialist Party in 1971, he initially identified with a left-wing faction led by ex-Communist Jean Poperen. Hollande, however, only joined the party in 1979, just two years before François Mitterrand was elected as the first French socialist president. After a fruitful early career in government he co-founded a movement called the Transcourants, or trans-factional movement, with other moderates.
Their careers have been very different, with Ayrault running a large urban area while Hollande presided the regional council in rural Corrèze in central France. And their current positions expose them to different pressures, with the prime minister running the gauntlet in his own majority, while the president is somewhat removed from the fray within the grand presidential offices of the Élysée Palace.
Their increasing distance was at its most public when Ayrault promised a "deep reform" of the convoluted French tax system last November. Ayrault had managed to extract presidential permission for his announcement – Hollande apparently decided to let him go ahead after a discussion between the two men, yet rumours of a government reshuffle were allowed to circulate unhindered during the days before. Some of his team, who asked for their names to be withheld, have since said that at the time they thought they would be packing up to leave Matignon at any time, and that interior minister Manuel Valls, widely tipped as a potential PM, had begun to assemble his own team.
Several of Ayrault's closest aides, who requested anonymity, said that during this period the prime minister was furious that the executive would cave in to mobilisation and pressures from various quarters. For example, it was the president's office that decided last November to postpone implementation of the planned eco-tax when the protest movement in Brittany reached its height, while Matignon tried to hold firm.
Back in the autumn, Ayrault envisaged a big shake-up at the finance ministry to clear the way for his tax reform, but he ultimately only succeeded in lining up replacements for two key figures, Budget director Julien Dubertret and Treasury director Ramon Fernandez (who was previously viewed as an ally of Nicolas Sarkozy, the former president and finance minister, but has since become close to the current economy minister, Pierre Moscovici). Now, three months on, while Dubertret was replaced in late November, Fernandez is still in his job - and there is no certainty that the tax reform will be carried out.
As for the volte-face on the family bill, what appeared to be a joint decision in fact carried Hollande’s imprint. The move was decided after Ayrault and Holland lunched together on February 3rd, and Ayrault was the one who gave the news to Secretary of State for Family Affairs Dominique Bertinotti.
But one of the president's advisors, who did not want to be named, made it known that "the president's wish is to concentrate efforts, symbolically and politically, solely on the battle for jobs". Under pressure from front-page headlines and his own majority the following day, the president then telephoned Bertinotti and met with her at length the following Saturday.
Since that episode something has changed both at Matignon and the Élysée. Hollande's aides say the president has no desire to address social issues, never supported medically-assisted procreation – one of the most controversial aspects of the family bill – and that in any case, these are not the issues that will get him re-elected in 2017.
"The President of the Republic is there to bring people together, and he does not want false debates that will add to tensions in an already tense society, especially not when a major new labour compromise is being sought," said one of his aides. "It’s hard to carry out reforms of society in France." Hollande, the aide said, is also aiming to move forward on another of his campaign promises with a bill on ‘end-of-life care’, which addresses the issue of euthanasia.
'Ayrault's wife says he’s made of granite'
Ayrault, perhaps adding to the confusion, was promising meanwhile that the main elements of the family bill would be considered without delay. "The president and the prime minister decided to calm things down,” commented one of his aides. “But there is no question of putting the content of reforms on adoption or the status of step-parents at the bottom of the pile. We are still working on it."
Nor was the government abandoning issues of society and only focusing on the Responsibility Pact, he added. "The Responsibility Pact is a response to the French people's most central concerns – growth, jobs – but that does not mean we are doing none of the other necessary things as well. We are not burying anything."
Ayrault is also keen on the planned policy to promote immigrant integration. At the Élysée, however, there is less enthusiasm in some quarters, and should the arguments become too acrimonious, these people will not hesitate to argue for a retreat. MP Bruno Le Roux, who heads the socialist group at the Assemblée Nationale, the lower house of Parliament, last Sunday cautioned that "given the period we are entering, when I see that we could be discussing the question of integration, I wonder if this debate should be reined in", adding: "intelligent proposals do not always provoke intelligent reactions".
Roux, who is close to Hollande, also said he was worried that the issue could "inflame society further". However, a government minister who did not want to be named said that Ayrault was "really determined" to push forward on this issue.
It remains to be seen what margin of manoeuvre Hollande will give him. However, the fundamental question all this raises is that of the role of a prime minister under a president who is now elected every five years, a change that has served to reinforce the dominance of the presidency. Looking over the past several months, it is hard to find a single strong measure that Ayrault has announced and managed to implement. Hollande promised not to turn his prime minister into a mere assistant, but he has gradually given in to the hyper-presidency forged by his predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy, and to the weight of the country's institutions.
The French president’s press conference on January 14th was a perfect example of this. He gave a speech presenting future policy lines, which normally would be for the prime minister to give before parliament, and even announced that there would be a vote of confidence in parliament.
During that speech, Hollande announced that a further 50 billion euros would be cut from public spending by 2017 and, to manage and enforce the massive programme, the creation of the Strategic Council on Public Spending (Conseil stratégique de la dépense publique), a monthly gathering headed by the president and composed of Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault and five key ministers. The move caught several members of government by surprise, beginning with Ayrault himself. Later that same day, in a meeting with several leading left-wing parliamentary figures, the prime minister joked: “François Hollande was kind. He asked for savings of 50 billion, he might have said 60.”
Inter-ministerial coordination is normally based within the prime minister’s office, but for several months now a number of ministerial advisors complain that the process is malfunctioning because of the interference from the presidential office. “Since last year, Ayrault and Hollande are drifting apart, like presidents and prime ministers always drift apart,” commented one advisor with a long experience of the workings of government, whose name is withheld.
“François Hollande fired Ayrault in December, but no-one knows,” said another well-placed source and longstanding ally of Hollande. “He never [openly] fires people, but he puts in place conditions which amount to the same thing. What is decided today in [the prime minister’s office] Matignon is of no consequence.”
The comments are dismissed by Ayrault’s entourage, who speak of the solidity of a man who is constantly rumoured to be on the way out but who has never left. “The prime minister is at work. He knows his roadmap and he is putting it in place in a determined manner. That’s his frame of mind,” said one source close to Ayrault. “The task is tough because the issues are tough. All the rest is froth. The prime minister doesn’t bother himself with that.” A number of Ayrault’s allies, including socialist MP Luc Belot, underline that he often makes clear he has no other ambition than serving as prime minister, while several of his ministers have their eyes either on his job or, in time, that of Hollande. “Jean-Marc Ayrault has no ambition to be French president,” said Belot. “So he’s there to do the job and he’s not there to backstab.”
But one of Ayrault’s advisors, speaking on condition of anonymity, admitted that there are tensions and that Ayrault shows “self-controlled signs of irritation”. One of the prime minister’s close allies even admitted to having advised him to resign. But, it would appear, Ayrault, who describes himself as driven by a sense of public duty, is not the quitting type and, like his conservative predecessor François Fillon, who served a full term of five years under Nicolas Sarkozy, is there to hold the course steady in face of a manoeuvring president.
“His wife says he’s made of granite,” commented one government advisor. “I think she’s right. And Jean-Marc Ayrault says that in his political career he has always been underestimated and that he’s always taken knocks, while he has never lost an election.”
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English version by Sue Landau and Graham Tearse
(Editing by Graham Tearse)