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Official results will begin arriving after the last polling stations close at 8pm.
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2.40am: The still provisional results established in the early hours of Monday after this extraordinary first round of local elections in France, held in an atmosphere of confusion and fear brought on by the increasing epidemic of the Covid-19 coronavirus epidemic and shutdown measures to contain it, show above all an extremely low turnout of voters, estimated at a national average of around 55.5% according to a poll by Ipsos/Sopra Steria for public broadcasters France Télévisions and Radio France.
In that light, it is difficult to interpret the results in terms of true public support for the different political parties. But the results as they are show President Emmanuel Macron’s ruling LREM party, which has a thumping parliamentary majority returned shortly after its creation in 2017, to have fared poorly, while the Green EELV party has notably made significant gains in a number of towns across France. The far-right Rassemblement National party has broadly held the strongholds it gained in previous elections (the last municipal elections were held in 2014, before the creation of Macron’s centre-right movement), while it failed to make significant gains in numerous municipalities where it had seen strong support in last year’s elections for members of the European Parliament.
The Parti Socialiste, which was decimated in the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2017, when Emmanuel Macron was elected president and his fledgling LREM party won a resounding majority in parliament, succeeded in keeping its head above water, holding on to key bastions of support, notably in Paris where the list led by incumbent mayor Anne Hidalgo, while falling short of an outright win in the first round, came first and appeared certain to win in alliance with the Greens in the second round.
The conservative Les Républicains party held on, either through outright victory in this first round, or by holding favourable position over opponents for the second round, to a large number of its fiefdoms, with numerous elders holding on to their local bases.
In short, and with the complete results due later on Monday, the status quo has largely been maintained in comparison with the last municipal poll held in 2014 – with the exception of the notable gains by the Greens. The LREM, as predicted, largely failed to establish itself in these local council elections, its first significant national test since 2017.
But the results, as a political barometer, are marred as a result of the confusion surrounding the Covid-19 outbreak, with more than one out of two voters turning their back on these elections.
To have held them while separately advising citizens to avoid non-essential public activity because of the Covid-19 epidemic has created a backlash of criticism against the government, which had little, if anything, to gain from the exercise, adding to a perception of lack of credible leadership in the crisis.
Prime Minister Édouard Philippe announced on Sunday that a postponement of the second round will be decided after his government’s consultations early this week with medical experts and political leaders. Persistent rumours suggest that a complete region-by-region lockdown of sections, or all, of the population, as has been imposed in Italy, will be announced later this coming week, and if that is indeed the chosen strategy, this first round of the elections, according to some constitutional experts, will have been in vain. If so, the political repercussions threaten to be enormous.
Meanwhile, in face of the epidemic which appears to be rising in strict parallel with that in Italy, all none-essential public commercial businesses and public venues have been shut down since midnight on Saturday, leaving only food stores, petrol stations and pharmacies and some medical-sector businesses open, while the public are advised to remain at home as much as possible, and self-isolation for all over-70-year-olds.
This reporting of the elections is now ending, but please do follow our further reports, on this and other major topics, to follow soon on the Mediapart English pages.
11.30pm: In face of growing calls from across the political spectrum for a postponement of the second round of the elections next Sunday, in the context of the coronavirus epidemic, the partial shutdown of public areas and the high abstention rate at the urns today, French Prime Minister Édouard Philippe announced he would be meeting with medical experts and political party leaders “at the beginning of the week” to decide whether the final round should be held.
For many observers it was an extraordinary decision to hold the elections amid the fast-accelerating epidemic, and at a time when the government has announced the closure of all non-essential commercial shops as well as cafés, restaurants and entertainment and cultural venues, and advised people to limit their activity and movements outside their home. There is increasing speculation that a total lockdown of sections of the population, as imposed in Italy, may soon be announced in France.
Constitutionalists are already being asked what the postponement of the second round would entail, and it appears possible that the first round would have to be held again.
10.50pm: The turnout of voters this Sunday is estimated to be just 45.5%, apparently due above all (according to one opinion survey) to public fears over the risks of contamination in polling stations from the coronavirus Covid-19.
As predicted, President Emmanuel Macron’s LREM party has, according to results so far, done poorly, and notably in France’s largest cities of Paris (where the list of socialist incumbent mayor Anne Hidalgo is weel in the lead) , Lyon (where the Greens take the first-round lead) and Marseille (where an alliance of the socialists, radical-left and communists are in front of the conservatives). In a number of towns Macron’s party is in a position to win council seats on condition it enters into alliances with other party lists. The list of council candidates led by Prime Minister Edouard Philippe in the northern town of Le Havre came in the lead, but at an estimated 43% (below the 50% threshold) he will move on to the second round (if victorious it would be his deputy who would take the post of mayor).
In Paris, the prize symbolic catch of these elections, the list led by outgoing socialist mayor Anne Hidalgo, seeking re-election, is given a comfortable lead with around 30% of votes cast, ahead of the conservative Les Républicains candidate Rachida Dati on around 22%, and the LREM’s Agnès Buzyn on about 18%. The LREM campaign in Paris turned into something of a fiasco for the LREM after its original candidate, Benjamin Griveaux, was forced to step down over a sex tape scandal, when Buzyn, then health minister leading the all-important organisation of measures to contain the growing coronavirus outbreak, replaced him.
Elsewhere the Parti Socialiste has held a number of towns (party veteran Martine Aubry, outgoing mayor of Lille has a comfortable lead to take to the second round), and the far-right Rassemblement National has also held its lead in a number of its old power bases while failing to take the lead in several communes where it was tipped to win.
The conservative Les Républicains have so far seen no major upsets (with the exception of Marseille), and notably took the lead in the northern town of Le Touquet, where President Macron and his wife are registered voters and spend their holdays.
9pm: There have been several calls by leading political figures for the cancellation of the second round, including from the Green EELV party’s Yannick Jadot, an MEP and an influential figure in the party, the radical-left France Insoumise party MP François Ruffin and the far-right Rassemblement national party leader Marine Le Pen.
8.45pm: Notable early results announced since 8pm are wins for government ministers Franck Riester (culture) and Gérald Darmanin (public accounts), both re-elected as mayors of, respectively, Coulommiers, west of Paris, and the north-east town of Tourcoing.
Also in the north-east, the co-vice-president of the far-right Rassemblement National party, Steeve Briois, was re-elected as mayor of the town of Hénin-Beaumont, where he announced garnering 74% of votes cast.
7.45pm: Christian Jacob, leader of France’s conservative party, Les Républicains (LR), was on Sunday tested positive for Covid-19, the coronavirus sweeping France and most of Europe, the party said in a statement this evening. Jacob took part in LR campaigning on Friday, notably attending a lunch organised in support of its candidate for mayor of Paris, Rachida Dati.
The latest toll of the epidemic in France, announced tonight, is 120 people dead and another 5,400 identified as being infected.
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The background: The two-round municipal elections are held on March 15th and, unless the coronavirus epidemic forces cancellation, March 22nd, when 47.7 million registered voters are called upon to elect local councils – and mayors – in mainland France and overseas territories. Voters must choose between lists of candidates fielded by the different political parties, with mayoral seats going to the lead candidate on lists which achieve a majority. In all but the smallest communes, those with a majority of more than 50% of votes cast in the first round are elected immediately, while those with less, but more than 10%, move on to the second round play off. The remainder either seek alliances (if they have garnered at least 5%) or are eliminated.
The last of these local elections were held in 2014, and this year represent the most important test for President Emmanuel Macon’s centre-right LREM party, created in 2017, since it won a thumping majority in parliamentary elections shortly after Macron became president that year.
But despite that parliamentary majority, the LREM has no significant presence in the local power bases represented by local councils, and opinion surveys suggest it will fair poorly against the old traditional parties of the Left and Right that it had shattered in 2017. Among the key issues is what support will be given to the far-right Rassemblement National, whose leader Marine Le Pen reached the final, two-horse second in the presidential elections, losing to Macron. Another is whether the conservative Les Républicains can claw back a significant number of those among its traditional electorate which moved over to the LREM in 2017. On the Left, the radical-left France Insoumise party will be hoping to gain further ground over the diminished and struggling Socialist Party, which imploded in 2017.
But overshadowing the political contest is the coronavirus epidemic which is accelerating in the country, and which prompted drastic measures this weekend when the government ordered the total shutdown from midnight on Saturday of a vast number of non-essential public sites, including shops, cafés, restaurants and entertainment venues, with the exception of food stores, petrol stations and pharmacies. In a developing climate of fear and confusion – maintaining the elections on Sunday was clearly in contradiction with official recommendations to limit movement in public – early exit polls reported abstention numbers to be sharply up on those of 2014. There is also uncertainty that the second round will be held, amid speculation that the government may soon impose a lockdown of the population as drastic as that now in force in Italy.