All times indicated are Central European Time (CET).
For a simple guide to the European Parliament elections (how they work, what’s at stake) see our earlier report here.
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Roundup at 4am: With the final results to be declared mid-Monday, the scores of the parties in France remains much as it has been throughout the evening’s estimations, with around 23.7% for the far-right RN party in first position, and 22.4% for the joint ‘Renaissance’ list of President Emmanuel Macron’s LREM party and the small centre-right party Modem. The Green EELV party remains at above 13%, well ahead of the conservative Les Républicains party – the biggest surprise regarding predictions by opinion surveys – which garnered just more than 8% of the vote. Then follows the alliance between the Parti Socialiste and the centre-left Place Publique movement, and also the radical-left France Insoumise party, both level with around 6.3%.
The results have been a disaster for the French conservatives, radical-left and the socialists, and a relative embarrassment for Macron who pinned the campaign on a resurgence of support for his government in face of the far-right. Nevertheless, after seven months of social unrest led by the so-called ‘yellow vest’ movement against his government, the political elite, and above all falling living standards for low- and middle-income earners, the result might be regarded as less embarrassing than some predicted.
None of the lists claiming to represent the ‘yellow vests’ drew significant support, but this very disparate movement, which includes supporters of the Left and Right, and which has largely refused political representation, has perhaps been diluted among those who abstained – almost one in two of the electorate – and others who voted for the far-right and radical-left.
On a pan-European level, the results so far – and which are regarded as definitive in their broad order, although percentage points are likely to change a little – appear to indicate significant losses for the centre-right and centre-left groups in the European parliament (respectively, the EPP and S&D). These have most certainly lost their joint majority dominance of the assembly, although the EPP remains the largest group. This will inevitably lead to new alliances between the main players and the emerging groups, and may be crucial to the election of candidates for the EU top jobs (such as the Commission president – see our earlier report here).
Importantly, the surge of support for Green parties in Germany, France, Sweden and Finland is projected to see their numbers in the European parliament rise from 17 to 67, while the Liberal group, notably with the arrival of seats won by Macron’s centrist party in France, are predicted to rise by about 40 seats to 108. One reason is that this was the first time that French President Emmanuel Macron’s party, established in 2017, three years after the last European elections, has taken part, and while disappointed it did not beat the far-right in the French vote, it brings a new dynamic to the centrist makeup of the parliament.
The far-right meanwhile faces a hurdle in forming a united force from among what is a splintered group, which is uncertain to find a common approach. While France’s RN arrived in the lead in France – as it did, it should be remembered, also in the last European elections in 2014 – its Italian counterpart, the League, is predicted to have won around 30% of the vote, well ahead of the RN score, and around 5% above its closest rival, the centre-left Democratic Party. In Hungary, Viktor Orbán’s far-right, anti-immigration Fidesz party took a massive 52% of the vote. Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, where the Labour Party scored a surprising comeback to probably double their seats, the far-right, anti-Islam Freedom party may have lost all of its previous four seats.
In Britain, the hardline Brexit party, led by former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, has a significant lead over the traditionally dominant Conservative and Labour parties, opening up the very real possibility of a no-deal withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU; the ruling Conservative party is gearingup for a change of leader and would no doubt face a struggle to emerge with a majority in probable general elections. However, as The Guardian reported tonight, in the detail of all votes cast, the parties advocating that the UK remains in the bloc collectively drew 40.4% of the vote, “while hard Brexit parties have taken 34.9% and the Conservatives and Labour have taken 23.2% between them”.
Meanwhile, the results tonight in Greece, where the conservative New Democrarcy party has beaten the ruling leftwing Syriza party, appears to have prompted a decision by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to call snap elections, probably in June.
Perhaps the last word tonight should go to the Danish liberal Margrethe Vestager, the outgoing EU Commissioner for competition who is in the running to replace the conservative outgoing president of the EU Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker: "The monopoly of power is broken," she said on Sunday, a reference to the grip previously held by the dominant EPP and S&D, and notably on nominations to key EU posts. What is certain is that the traditional stranglehold of the traditional parties in the European Parliament has been broken, and new battles for power in the EU’s legislative assembly, shaking up years of a status quo, are now about to begin.
00.15am: Official French interior ministry figures of the results, released at midnight, when 79% of votes cast nationwide were counted, are as follows:
The far-right RN party at 25.16%
Emmanuel Macron’s LREM party (allied to centre-right Modem party) at 21.5%
The Green party EELV at 12.7%
The conservative Les Républicains and centre-right allies at 8.37%
The radical-left France Insoumise party at 6.26%
The Parti Socialiste and centre-left ally Place Publique at 5.99%
The hardright Debout la France at 3.76%
The leftist Génération.s party at 3.13%
All others came in below 3%.
The interior ministry recorded (in these partial results) turnout at 50.83%
The interior ministry figures will change as more votes are counted. Meanwhile, there is a slight difference in estimates between different exit poll surveys which were released at 9pm. While Ipsos/Sopra Steria (commissioned by France’s public broadcasters) puts the far-right RN party in the lead at 23.4%, and President Macron’s party and allies (Renaissance) in second place at 22.4%, a separate poll by Harris Interactive-Epoka gives the RN 23.7% and Renaissance the same 22.4%.
11.50pm: Speaking on Thursday evening, French Prime Minister Édouard Philippe gave a downbeat appraisal of the results, accepting that the far-right RN party (the former Front National) had come in first place ahead of the government’s LREM party (which ran in an alliance, which for the purpose of the European elections was called Renaissance, with the much smaller centre-right Modem party). “When one finishes second, one can’t say one has won,” he said. It was the first time that Emmanuel Macron’s party, formed after his election in 2017, had fought in a European election, which is the first electoral test it has faced since it won legislative elections that same year.
Philippe voiced his dismay at what he called “the entrenchment of the far-right to the point of becoming a major force” in France.
French press agency AFP tonight cited a source at the presidential office, the Élysée Palace, as describing the second place of its candidates was an “honourable score” and showed that the “presidential majority is holding up well”. The unnamed source added that, “we’ve never seen a party in power reach a score so high in comparison with the presidential election”.
11.35pm: The Europe-wide results, mostly estimates but considered reliable, show a significant surge of support for the Greens, notably in France and, even more so, in Germany, but also in Sweden and Finland.
The figures also indicate that the two main groups in the outgoing parliament, the conservative EPP and the centre-left S&D, will no longer have a majority together, falling to less than half of all seats for the first time ever.
In Greece, the conservatives appear to have beaten the ruling leftwing Syriza party, opening up the possibility of snap general elections as early as June.
Europe-wide turnout is estimated at around 51%, and fractionally more in France (51.3%).
11.20pm: “Given the democratic disavowal that the [government] suffers tonight, it is for the president to draw the consequences, he who placed his presidential credit in this election by making it a referendum over his policies and even his person,” said far-right RN leader Marine Le Pen, adding that Emmanuel Macron should “dissolve” parliament.
11.15pm: “Emmanuel Macron has been slapped tonight by the French people,” commented far-right RN spokesman Sébastien Chenu, who said the party’s first place with around 24% of votes cast was a “popular awakening against the powers in place”.
The Green EELV party lead candidate Yannick Jadot, whose list came in third place well ahead of the conservative LR party, to the surprise of many observers, spoke of a “European green wave of which we are players”. Pre-election opinion surveys did not predict the EELV success, and also over estimated voting intentions for the conservatives;
Turnout in France has bucked the downward trend over all previous elections since 1979, with an estimated 51.3% of registered voters taking part in the poll on Sunday, compared with 42.43% in 2014, during the last European Parliament elections.
11pm: The nationalist, hardright Debout La France is estimated to have garnered 3.4%, while the breakaway leftist Génération.s party created by the socialist candidate in the 2017 presidential elections, former minister Benoît Hamon, is estimated to have come in last among the top eight contenders at 3.3%. That is too close to be certain who will finally emerge as last, but if the indications are correct neither has won a single seat although both small parties would narrowly qualify for reimbursement of campaign spending.
10.30pm: The two main political groups in the outgoing European Parliament, the conservative European People’s Part (EPP) and the Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) have lost, respectively, 44 and 39 seats, down to 177 for the EPP and 147 for the S&D, according to exit poll estimates across EU member states, commissioned by the European Parliament from survey institute Kantar Public.
The alliance of far-right and nationalist Europe of Nations and Freedom group (ENF), to which France’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN) belongs, are tipped to have won 57 seats, 20 more than in the outgoing parliament, and in large part due to the RN’s apparent success in France.
10pm: In France, initial exit polls suggest the far-right Rassemblement National party leading with 23.3% of votes cast, followed by President Emmanuel Macron’s LREM party (allied with the centre-right Modem party) at 22.1%, followed by the green EELV party at 13.1%. The conservative Les Républicains party is tipped to have 8.4%, the socialist alliance (Parti Socialiste and the centre-left Place Publique) at 6.6% at level standing with the radical-left France Insoumise party.
Official results are expected to begin arriving after 11pm.