If one wants things to stay as they are, things will have to change. Rarely has this overused quote from Tomasi di Lampedusa’s novel 'The Leopard' applied so aptly to French political life. Through the policies he has pursued over the past seven years and as a result of his recent high-handed decision to dissolve the National Assembly, the President of the Republic risked allowing the far-right – fresh from its success in the European elections - to come to power in France for the first time since the wartime Vichy regime.
And by failing to draw the right conclusions after his political camp's defeat in the European and parliamentary elections, he has also plunged the country into unprecedented political and institutional chaos.
Yet now he wants to quietly enjoy the Paris Olympics, his eyes sparkling when he talks about Céline Dion, the singer who is due to perform at this Friday's opening ceremony. Speaking from an open-air France Télévisions and Radio France studio opposite the Eiffel Tower on Tuesday, the president announced that there would be no new government before “mid-August” and that he was not considering any changes in policy. On the contrary, he instead proposed “reinforcing” existing policies by allying with the “republican” Right, which is itself in tatters after the recent elections that produced a hung Parliament.
Enlargement : Illustration 1
In the meantime, until the end of the sporting competition - he wants a political ”truce” during the event - everything will carry on as before. In an incongruous move in terms of democracy, Gabriel Attal remains prime minister while also being president of the Macronist group of MPs, or what’s left of it, at the National Assembly. The government continues: although it has officially resigned, it has issued decrees under the new immigration law which make life impossible for migrants. And though it is supposedly just managing “day-to-day business”, it is at the helm of a state tasked with organising a high-risk global event.
Meanwhile, the ex-president of the National Assembly, Yaël Braun-Pivet, has been re-elected to that post thanks to the support of ministers voting in their capacity as MPs, indifferent to the necessary separation of powers.
Though voters turned out in large numbers on June 30th and July 7th, including some who usually abstain because they are disillusioned with politics, to block the fascist threat and repudiate government policy, the message now sent by this status quo is catastrophic. It demonstrates that voting is now not enough to effect real change.
In a moment of clarity - and for the first time since the second round of the parliamentary elections - Emmanuel Macron publicly acknowledged during his televised address that he had “lost”. But this was only a way of further entrenching himself in a surreal denial of reality, one which is particularly concerning for the rule of law.
Trying to sedate the country by exploiting the Olympics, this is a man who lives in a parallel world, an Orwellian '1984' world in which values are inverted, where war is peace, freedom is slavery, and ignorance is strength. Election results no longer matter, even when those elections have been decreed by the prince.
In any parliamentary democracy, the head of state would by now have already invited the coalition of the Left and the greens who, together under the banner of the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), came first in the second round of the parliamentary elections, to form a viable government and majority, even if he then had to turn to others to try if they failed.
But though he has had 17 days to do so, he refuses to fulfil this responsibility, as he repeated once again on camera on Tuesday, instead shifting the onus onto political parties to reach an agreement. An attempt to buy time, this tactic in fact goes against the spirit of the Constitution, according to which the president designates the government, which then presents itself to MPs. It is then they who decide whether or not to grant it their confidence.
“While he may try to save his devastated troops by playing on the public's weariness with the parties' horse-trading for positions, and in doing so hopes to regain the appearance of power that eludes him, his pathetic manoeuvre can't disguise the obvious: this president is failing in the duties of his office, as stated in Article 68 [of the Constitution],” rails constitutional expert Pierre Avril in a blog, in which he rues a situation as “confusing as it is unprecedented”.
A “republican front” without its prime movers
After fulfilling its responsibilities when the National Assembly was dissolved, the NFP then - to the exasperation of its voters – delayed reaching an agreement on a candidate able to form a government. That has now been done: the alliance, which consists of the radical-left La France Insoumise (LFI), the Parti Socialiste (PS), Les Écologistes and the communist party the PCF, has put forward the name of Lucie Castets to be prime minister. A figure from civil society, she is the co-founder of the public services campaign group Nos Services Publics (see this article in French here). But Emmanuel Macron dismissed the proposal with a sovereign disdain that was unworthy of the moment. “That’s not the issue,” he declared, on the grounds that this coalition would have “no majority whatsoever” with which to govern.
The argument that the NFP is incapable of making compromises has gone. So in order to dismiss a setup that does not suit him - as it would mean political cohabitation with a grouping that rejects his policies - he has instead urged the parties from the “republican front” at the recent parliamentary elections to come to an agreement.
Except nothing about this appeal makes sense. For one thing, it includes MPs from the conservative Right (formerly Les Républicains or LR) who, in addition to being few in number and thus unable to provide him with an absolute majority, refused to stand down its candidates in order to block far-right Rassemblement National (RN) candidates at the recent elections. And it addition this appeal implicitly excludes a large number of elected representatives from the NFP – MPs from the radical-left LFI. Yet it was the NFP which was the driving force behind the defeat of the far-right in the parliamentary elections.
By promising that “if the forces that can secure a majority in the Assembly” agree to govern, then there “won't be a dissolution” in a year's time – the earliest that fresh elections can be held under the Constitution - Macron is trying to attract some PS MPs who are at odds with the NFP. However, after the announcement of a common leftwing candidate for the post of prime minister, the cost of betrayal for those socialists seems too high a price to pay for taking part in a coalition of losers.
This is especially true given that the political roadmap the president is hinting at not only lacks legitimacy, it also seems unlikely to convince anyone on the Left outside his own camp, including among the NFP dissidents. For what is his take away message from his camp’s defeat in the European and parliamentary elections? It is that the “urgent thing is not to undo what we have just done (…). The priority is not to go backwards”. By name-checking an increase in working hours, competitiveness, security, and youth justice, he shows he has no intention of changing policy, except to align it more closely with the very reactionary “legislative pact” of Laurent Wauquiez and Bruno Retailleau on the conservative Right, which he considers a move “in the right direction”. Yet without the RN’s approval, such a government would have no chance of surviving.
A narrow path for the Nouveau Front Populaire
Having Lucie Castets as prime minister would have the merit of respecting the election results by supporting - via her - the mobilisation of civil society, which played a major role in blocking the far-right. This senior public servant, whose profile straddles working for the state and involvement in social movements, meets with the agreement of all sections of the Left and the greens. She plans to “give power back” to Parliament by constructing agreements “topic by topic”. She told France Inter radio on July 24th: “ The idea is to convince [legislative] text by text.”
The Parliamentary path for the NFP is a narrow one, and this includes being able to survive a motion of censure from the RN, the LR and the Macronist camp. But it remains the only solution to break the deadlock, however temporary it may be. Given the clear institutional impasse in which the country has plunged and to avoid its endless recurrence, one of her priorities - in addition to the social and anti-racist measures she is promoting - should be to put an end to the presidentialism inherent in the Fifth Republic. Emmanuel Macron has pushed this to its maximum and if nothing is done it will propel the country into the arms of the RN.
For the dissolution has in no way dissipated the threat of the far-right. On the contrary, the party presided over by Jordan Bardella has significantly increased its number of MPs. The lack of a political culture of multifaceted alliances in France is not the only cause. We must address the flaws of a Fifth Republic that is running out of steam, whose essence relies on having a working majority in the Assembly.
An end to 'presidentialism'
Even though some on the Left still imagine themselves in the role of a providential presidential figure, waiting for the current head of state to resign in the hope of taking his place, there is an urgent need to look beyond the current regime crisis and demand a new political system. A system that, meeting the democratic aspirations of society and new generations, places citizens at the heart of the decision-making process and respects checks and balances to power.
As has been proposed by some constitutional experts and political leaders, this could involve the convening of a constitutional referendum, as provided for under Article 11 of the Constitution, that would enable voters to express their views on the institutional framework they wish to establish together.
For the sake of democratic vitality, the introduction of proportional representation seems essential, as does a rebalancing of power in favour of the prime minister, who would emerge from political groupings able to command a majority in the Assembly. The changes should also involve restoring the role of intermediary social bodies, stifled under Macron's presidency, at the heart of discussions. Political parties, local elected officials, associations, trade unions and civil society as a whole are all essential anchors to reality, preventing the isolation and disconnect that stem from a purely top-down power structure.
To counter the far-right in the long-term, we have to transform our institutions in a way that is more respectful of popular expression. Without this, republican blockades or fronts will no longer be enough, and the RN will eventually take the Assembly, then the Élysée - or vice versa.
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- The original French version of this op-end can be found here.
English version by Michael Streeter