The issue of expatriation has become a political one in France. “Every day, companies decide to no longer remain in France because of the weight of taxation and administrative rigmaroles,” commented Luc Chatel, a former education minister under the previous conservative government. “Every day, French people decide to become expatriates because they reckon that their country no longer offers opportunities to succeed.”
Chatel has called for the creation of a fact-finding mission to establish the magnitude of a problem he believes exists because of the socialist policies of President François Hollande and his government, elected two years ago.
In March, the Paris and Greater Paris Region Chamber of Commerce and Industry published the results of a study to establish the reality behind recurrent media reports and commentaries that the French are increasingly opting to move abroad, and especially young talent. “After an unprecedented fiscal shock meted out in 2012-2013, has France suddenly become a land of emigration?” it asks in its introduction, referring to the tax hikes introduced by France’s socialist government. “Are its elites, like also those with talent, running to emigrate towards more clement and welcoming places, walking the “red carpet” rolled out by some well-intentioned neighbours?,” it continues, with this time a sarcastic reference to British Prime Minister David Cameron’s offer to “roll out the red carpet” to French businesses and individuals fleeing tax hikes.
Enlargement : Illustration 1
“For some months, these disturbing questions occupy the headlines of the media, notably those abroad, and numerous French observers, confronted with the obvious signs of an increased mobility among the young, the upper management of large corporations, the very wealthy and entrepreneurs, are worried about what appears to be a haemorrhage,” notes the study, which goes on to confirm the rise in the numbers of French seeking a new life abroad.
Citing a recent survey by the Opinionway polling institute which found an average 34% of 18-34 year-olds questioned saw their future outside of France, it noted that among younger respondents the figure was higher (45% for 18-24 year-olds). “The extent of unemployment, and notably among the young, constitutes one of the most plausible explanations for this sudden acceleration in the expatriation of young qualified people,” the study suggested. “One can also add to this the fall in morale among the French and the ambient moroseness present in France since the start of the European sovereign debt crisis”.
Enlargement : Illustration 2
The study quotes a 2013 IFOP poll, commissioned by consultancy firm Deloitte, of young masters’ degree graduates which found that 27% said they were intent on moving abroad (a rise of 14% on the same poll in 2012). The destinations cited were mostly Canada, the United States, Britain and Australia, with the various aims of working “in more positive professional surrounds”, “in a culturally different environment”, “to be better paid”, “to learn, or progress with the mastering of, a foreign language” and to “enrich” their CVs.
But a close study of the 2014 edition of the IFOP/Deloitte poll (published in Deloitte’s yearly ‘Barometer of the mood of young graduates’) shines a quite different light on the findings. The survey, carried out between January 9th and 18th this year, involved 1001 masters graduates. The questions concerning expatriation were put only to those then looking for employment, and who represented 49% of all those taking part in the poll. Regarding the intended length of their stay abroad, the question was put only to those unemployed graduates who said they wanted to move abroad – and who made up 27% of all those polled.
Statistics collected by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) confirm a rise in the numbers moving abroad, but one that is far from significant. The OECD data is collected from censuses carried out in the countries to which people have moved and which are updated every ten years. Thus, between 2001 and 2011, the number of French expatriates was found to have risen by about 15%, which must be placed into the context of the small numbers concerned in the base figure, and which is by no means unique when compared with other similarly developed countries.
The favoured destination for French expatriates of all categories (age and activity) is the United States. Those destinations that have seen the strongest rise in French emigration are, in order, Spain, Canada, and Germany. In equal position after those are Britain, Belgium and Switzerland.
The 1.3 million French living abroad represent 2.5% of French nationals. In Britain, the proportion of expatriates as a proportion of the total number of British nationals is 6.5%, in the Netherlands 5%, in Germany 4.2% and in Italy 4.4%. Among European Union member states, this proportion is highest in eastern and southern European countries, corresponding with those worst-hit by economic and social crises: 14.2% in Portugal, 12.2% in Portugal, 8.9% in Poland. In Ireland, it reaches 16.1%.
'The numbers leaving are still relatively small'
The OECD provides country-by-country figures of expatriation among graduates. Over the ten years to 2011, this category of emigrants rose by 60% against the previous ten years. But, once again, the rise was even greater among most other OECD member countries.
Because the OECD statistics date from just before the socialist victory in the 2012 presidential and legislative elections, it could be argued that the effects of these may have changed the picture. Contacted by Mediapart, Jean-Christophe Dumont, head of the OECD’s international migration office, suggested that his organisation’s 2011 figures can be topped up with data from the French foreign affairs ministry, which records the number of French registered as foreign residents with their consulates abroad . “The evolutions thus produced do not show a difference before and after 2012,” said Dumont. “On the opposite, we rather see a fall-off.”
However, while these consulate figures are regularly updated, they are necessarily an underestimation of the true number of French living in any developed country because only a minority undertake the procedure of registering with their consulate. The practice is far more popular in risk zones or in the months preceding an election in France (in order to register as a voter).
“Nothing allows the conclusion that there is an acceleration [in the numbers of] of departures,” said Dumont. “Until proved otherwise, the current evolution is positive. The modest rises in the expatriation of graduates corresponds with a necessary catching-up process. Rather than a worrying brain drain, we believe that it is a sign of the better integration of the French in the world talent market. They leave because they know that to find a job in France the mastering of a foreign language and the experience of living abroad makes all the difference. “
Dumont argues that graduate expatriations “are an opportunity for everyone”, both the graduates and businesses. Importantly, until now the figures show that most return to France, for reasons such as founding a family, to benefit from the country’s social protection systems or simply to rediscover their familiar culture.
Meanwhile, if France may have lost a certain shine to its attractiveness for foreigners, it remains a popular place for expatriates from abroad. In a comparison of inflow and outflow of migrants, it stands in fourth position among OECD member countries, well behind the US but ahead of Germany.
At the prestigious Paris political sciences institute, Sciences-Po, two researchers with its Inter-disciplinary laboratory for the evaluation of public policies (Liepp) recently concluded a study into France’s supposed brain drain, entitled Y a-t-il un exode des qualifiés français ? Quels sont les chiffres de l’émigration. It found that there was only a modest rise in the number of French expatriates over the past decade which, the researchers underlined, corresponded with technological progress and the increase in education levels in wealthy countries. They also found that among expatriates with higher education diplomas, there were more incoming than outgoing.
“It appears to us that it is an exaggeration to talk of a brain-drain phenomenon in France,” the researchers conclude in their report. “The departure of people with university education is largely compensated by immigration, and the [comparative] results [by country] only show a deficit in certain countries where emigration is even weaker than ours, such as the United States. In fact, compared to most other countries, the number of departures [from France] is still relatively very small.” The authors observe a “certain timidity among French natives to try their luck abroad”, while they also argue that for those who do such moves should be considered as an opportunity both for them and their country whose global “reach” they contribute to strengthening.
There remains an issue that is not sufficiently studied: the evolution of expatriation among the young French from its overseas territories and those of immigrant parents. While there are numerous media interviews in which they express their desire to move abroad, largely in reaction to racial discrimination they have suffered in France, there are no reliable statistics available on the numbers leaving.
While French business heads express concern about rising expatriation it could be argued that, in the process of introducing ever more stringent requirements demanded of job candidates, they are emptying the small category of highly-qualified graduates who they consider apt for employment. By ringing the alarm they are calling into question current political policies rather than questioning their own responsibility – and more precisely a review of their hiring strategies.
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- The French version of this article can be found here.
English version by Graham Tearse