Files on the issue have probably been gathering dust in the drawers of government advisers. However, three decades of diplomatic notes, cryptic statements, and secret negotiations have not yet brought the matter to a close: France still does not recognize Palestine as a state. In the Élysée, the question has resurfaced once more because of the current tragic events in the region. Could this now finally be the moment to make the move?
Around the president, calls for recognition to be granted are becoming increasingly strident. “I don't see why we're hesitating,” declares Ofer Bronchtein, president of the International Forum for Peace, whom Emmanuel Macron tasked with a mission on reconciliation between Israelis and Palestinians. “It must be done!” exclaims Richard Ramos, a Member of Parliament from the centrist MoDem, allies of the ruling party, and president of the France-Palestine study group in the National Assembly. “At some point, you have to go for it. That time has come,” he says.
“Now is the moment to salvage peace in the face of the ongoing genocide,” insists Salman el Herfi, a former Palestinian ambassador to France (2015-2021), who sought during François Hollande's term (2012 to 2017) to initiate this “very important step in resolving the conflict, if we want to avoid repeated wars”. His efforts were in vain. “Unfortunately, it led to nothing,” he acknowledges, pointing the finger of blame at the United States, Israel's historic ally. “They block peace. They advocate for a two-state solution and the next day, they veto it,” he adds.
For its supporters, the recognition of Palestine has diplomatic virtues, in light of the Israeli government's repeated violations of international law. “There's no prospect of advancing peace as long as Israel enjoys such impunity,” states Anne Tuaillon, president of the France Palestine Solidarity (FPS) association. “Recognition would have extremely symbolic significance; it would be a strong signal sent by France.”
Enlargement : Illustration 1
One hundred and forty-one countries now recognize Palestine, including the overwhelming majority of countries in South America, Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe. But it is a list which features no Western power, no G7 member and no permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. Hence the resonance that such a gesture from Paris would have.
“In the history of the conflict, France has long had the upper hand at the European level and has been behind most diplomatic advances,” points out Yves Aubin de La Messuzière, former diplomat and director for North Africa and the Middle East at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 1999 to 2002. Ofer Bronchtein is also hopeful about the impact such a move would have. “A great country like France, a member of the Security Council, a European powerhouse, doing this... Can you imagine the symbol for the Palestinians?” he asks.
The recent mood music in Paris has given advocates of this option growing grounds for optimism. In mid-February Emmanuel Macron declared that the “recognition of a Palestinian state” was “not a taboo for France”. The French head of state, who was standing alongside King Abdullah II of Jordan during a visit by the latter to the Élysée, added that “we owe it to the Palestinians” and to their “long-standing aspirations that have been trampled on for too long”.
On April 18th, during the UN Security Council meeting, France voted in favour of admitting Palestine as a full member of the body, where it has held observer status since 2012. Although the resolution, proposed by Algeria, saw its adoption blocked by the US veto, France's vote constituted “a very important moment”, according to Yves Aubin de La Messuzière, who saw it as the “start of French diplomacy”.
Macron is waiting for the right moment
A specialist in the Arab world, the former Ministry of Foreign Affairs official is convinced of one thing. “The diplomatic apparatus believes it is time to recognize Palestine,” he says. And the head of state? “Even he no longer has to be convinced,” insists Ofer Bronchtein, who is urging the French president to take the step. One person who is in contact with the president on the issue notes a slight shift in wording in recent weeks: “He no longer says 'in due course', he says 'soon'.”
The reality is that Emmanuel Macron is hesitating. His personal leaning is, as is often the case, difficult to discern, but the head of state gives the impression to those to whom he speaks of wanting to make progress on the issue. Some of his supporters see it as a political opportunity: the recognition of Palestine would have the merit of putting France at the heart of diplomatic manoeuvring in which it has so far been only a secondary player.
This point may seem insignificant given the issues at stake, but it is certainly on the minds of people at the Élysée. Keen on gesture diplomacy, Emmanuel Macron has been searching since October 7th for his moment, for his own initiative. He asks his teams of advisors to show “boldness”. And as on other subjects, he sometimes sounds out the opinions of unlikely figures, and often looks with distrust at the stances of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs whose “conservatism” he dislikes.
So far, his attempts have not been successful. The “anti-Hamas coalition”, which he proposed in Tel Aviv at the end of last October, never saw the light of day, producing incomprehension from the international community. The humanitarian conference for Gaza, which he organized at the Élysée on November 9th, failed to attract any major foreign leaders. As for the most strategic negotiations, over the signing of a truce or the release of hostages, Paris has never taken part in these, leaving the United States, Egypt and Qatar to assume the mantle of mediators.
“When it comes to diplomatic matters the Macron presidency has been marked by posturing,” says a senior diplomat very familiar with the Israeli-Palestinian issue, speaking on condition of anonymity. “It lacks deep convictions. What are the results in terms of foreign policy since 2017? None, except perhaps Rwanda, if that. His proposal for an anti-Hamas coalition, which was not thought through with the countries concerned, was grotesque and further damaged his reputation.”
But could recognition of the Palestinian state represent a comeback for French diplomacy? Three years before the end of his term, Emmanuel Macron is also preparing his legacy. At any rate, some of his advisers are thinking about this on his behalf, eager to see him leave a lasting mark through his international action on the one hand, and his policies concerning the way past historic events are remembered in France, for example the country's involvement in Algeria and Rwanda, on the other.
The real question is: when should you do it so that it is useful?
There is nothing to stop the head of state from recognizing Palestine today. The ground has been prepared by his predecessors since the days of François Mitterrand (1981 - 1995), all of whom have entertained the idea; the state's administration and diplomatic service are ready for it; both Parliamentary chambers have approved the idea, in 2011 in the case of the Senate, and 2014 for the National Assembly. “All that's missing is a signature from the President of the Republic,” stresses Jean-Paul Lecoq, a communist MP actively engaged in the issue. “Everything is ready, all that's required is to make this courageous gesture.”
Meanwhile the age-old question of “timing” remains. Gilbert Roger grimaces at the mere mention of the word. The former socialist senator, who initiated the resolution voted on the issue in 2011, still does not understand why François Hollande didn't take the plunge, despite having promised it in his presidential manifesto. “It was a great disappointment,” he sighs today. “The executive told me: it's not the right time, it's not the moment. I didn't get any other explanation than that. And I obviously wasn't convinced.”
A decade later, the government's timidity has not gone away. The officials in charge of the “Palestinian issue” have not changed either. Anne-Claire Legendre was the adviser for North Africa and the Middle East to Laurent Fabius, who was then foreign affairs minister; she holds the same brief under Emmanuel Macron. Emmanuel Bonne was her counterpart at the Élysée, under François Hollande; he is the diplomatic adviser to the current president.
The foreign minister's reticence
Today, as was the case back then, some advisers to the government insist that it is important to wait. “The real question is: when should you do it so that it's useful? So that it produces concrete effects, for the Palestinians and for the future of Gaza?” is an argument heard within the presidential circle. From his office at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs building on the Quai d'Orsay in Paris, the current foreign minister, Stéphane Séjourné, is not one of those pushing to accelerate the issue.
Since his appointment in January, the new foreign minister has appeared to want to avoid a power struggle with Israel at all costs. “Accusing the Jewish state of genocide is crossing a moral threshold,” he declared in January, even as international alerts about the risk of genocide grew in number. “It's unbelievable,” sighs Anne Tuaillon from France Palestine Solidarity. “We changed course with his appointment to the Quai d'Orsay. He doesn't even mention the word 'occupation', he adopts the words of the Israeli government such as 'settlements'. There's no doubt that he's taking a backwards step on these issues.”
Within the government ecosystem, the caution displayed by Stéphane Séjourné and his office constitutes yet another argument in favour of the status quo. “Recognition is a one-shot deal,” his entourage says by way of justification. “If it doesn't have the desired effects, it falls flat and does more harm to the cause than anything else because we deprive ourselves of one of France's most powerful levers in its bilateral relations,” they argue. This approach sees the long-promised act as a diplomatic weapon of deterrence, which remains in place to provide leverage with the Israeli government.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs says it prioritises concrete progress, starting with a resolution at the United Nations on post-war Gaza. “Recognizing the State of Palestine won't create a state,” is the line taken by the French diplomatic service. “Yes, it's an important and symbolic step, but it doesn't provide anything tangible to the Palestinians, and especially not a functioning state. We understand that it's sometimes difficult to comprehend, but it's simply not the case that recognition leads to actual change.”
This opinion is shared by a senior diplomat, someone who has long been at the heart of negotiations, even though he is very critical of the ministry's current stance as represented by Stéphane Séjourné, which he considers “too conciliatory” towards Israel. “Once you recognize the Palestinian state nothing then happens, because Israel doesn't recognize it,” says the diplomat. “It changes nothing on the ground. Israel continues its policy of colonization, expropriation, expulsion.”
For the situation has not just been critical in Gaza since October 7th. It's also dire in the West Bank, where colonization continues unchecked, with settlements rapidly expanding and encircling Palestinian villages. Armed settlers carry out daily attacks, seizing land, burning homes, and killing Palestinians, often under the protection or passive gaze of the Israeli military. “Palestinians are left with mere pockets of land, the West Bank resembles a leopard's skin. It's deliberately being made to render a Palestinian state utterly unlivable,” observes the same diplomat.
For him, “the only solution, which would require extraordinary courage currently lacking in the world, is to impose upon the current Israeli government - an extremist regime facing not unfounded accusations of genocide - the same sanctions that were applied to South Africa and to fight for a two-state solution, even though it seems increasingly distant, due both to a failure to provide the resources and a willingness to just settle for rhetoric.”
In mid-April, the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel further dimmed the prospect of recognition. Following Iran's retaliation for the deadly attack on its consulate in Damascus, the international community reaffirmed its solidarity with Israel, which had eroded as a result of the Gaza massacres. This bolstered the Netanyahu government, which until then had appeared increasingly isolated on the world stage.
“One can understand a kind of reluctance to weaken Israel's position, as it is a democratic ally,” notes Jean-Charles Larsonneur, former president of the France-Palestine group in the National Assembly and current MP for Finistère in western France. “We mustn't give the impression that we're questioning Israel's existence. But when we don't tell powers with expansionist intentions to stop, these powers abuse it. It's now time to roll up our sleeves and recognize Palestine. It's obvious.”
At the highest levels of government, there is increasing talk of recognition of Palestine taking place in a coordinated way at international level. While several European countries are considering taking the step soon (Spain, Ireland, Belgium), Paris is urging restraint. Stéphane Séjourné's message to his counterparts is in broad terms: let's wait a bit and do it together... later. “We don't believe that doing it in a disorganised manner is helpful,” confirms the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Many observers and stakeholders are dismayed at this “straitjacket of unanimity” approach, which they see as an excuse for inaction under the guise of seeking consensus. “It's true that France has always expressed a desire to recognize Palestine, but not on its own,” former Palestinian ambassador Salman el Herfi concedes wearily, while still trying to remain “optimistic”.
Domestic political stakes
Some people in Emmanuel Macron's inner circle dream of a scenario in which France initiates a movement that is then followed by a number of Western powers. Discussions are already underway, including with Great Britain and the United States, both staunch supporters of Israel. At the end of January the American media outlet Axios revealed that Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, had instructed his staff to review the options for recognising a Palestinian state.
This was a timely leak which was interpreted by some as an attempt by the Biden administration to appease the pro-Palestinian electorate in the US, seen as essential ahead of the election in November, as criticism mounts over his unconditional support for Israel. This is an important factor in understanding the hesitation both in France and other capitals: domestic political considerations and upcoming elections. “We all have very different public opinions, with different histories, sensitivities, and populations,” notes one government advisor.
It is hard to imagine Emmanuel Macron moving towards recognition before the European elections on June 9th. Unlike his Spanish counterpart, Pedro Sánchez, who has specifically decided to make it a campaign issue, the French head of state believes he has more to lose than to gain by putting this topic on the agenda, with an electorate he sees as increasingly rightwing.
At the age of 70, former Socialist senator Gilbert Roger displays a little weariness over the issue. “I've often discussed it since with François Hollande, who believes it's the natural course of things and that it will inevitably come,” he says. “Everyone says it's the solution, but no one wants to implement it themselves.” Communist Jean-Paul Lecoq acknowledges the obstacles but urges Paris to overcome them. “It's when something is difficult that we need the courage to act,” says the senator from the Seine-Maritime département or county in north-west France. “That's when we see courageous figures.”
He wrote to Emmanuel Macron along these lines in mid-April, a letter co-signed by several leftwing colleagues and a few members of the centrist ruling majority. On May 15th the National Assembly's office is also set to approve turning the France-Palestine study group into a friendship group. This status is a privilege reserved for established states. It is a symbolic step, one partly aimed at further increasing pressure on the Élysée. “In these cases there's always the fear of making a decision,” says Richard Ramos, the group's president. “Now's the time to do it.”
As a former advisor to Yitzhak Rabin – the Israeli prime minister who signed the Oslo Accords in 1993 - Ofer Bronchtein continues to correspond with the French president via text messages and memos. “For thirty-five years, there's always been a good reason to postpone the deadline,” he sighs. “There are always elections, crises, attacks, good reasons to say 'let's do it tomorrow.' Now we must stop. It's time.”
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- The original French version of this article can be found here.
English version by Michael Streeter