Throughout Tuesday afternoon rumours were circulating among the journalists accompanying Emmanuel Macron on his trip to Saudi Arabia. The French president “wants to speak”, his entourage revealed. No cameras, no sound, the Élysée insisted, but everything was “on the record” provided the president’s remarks were published only after 6.45 pm that day. This move was seen as a slight to his prime minister, Michel Barnier, who was scheduled to speak just over an hour later on the main evening news bulletins on television channels TF1 and France 2.
At that point, the president was still refusing to contemplate the post-Barnier era, insisting he “did not believe” that Wednesday's scheduled motion of no confidence would pass and that he was confident his prime minister would “battle to the very last second” to survive. To journalists who asked about his plans for what came next, the president smiled, raised his voice, and said: “It's unbelievable! You never live in the here and now. You’re either stuck in the past or rushing ahead to the future. I don’t do political fiction.”
Beyond the theatrics, the demise of his fifth prime minister in Wednesday's vote of no confidence – which was backed by 331 MPs - does not seem to have left Emmanuel Macron despondent. How could it, three months after making a decision – appointing Barnier in the first place - that had reduced him to a secondary role? As early as mid-September, he was privately mocking the “odd characters” Michel Barnier, former prime minister Gabriel Attal, and rightwinger Laurent Wauquiez had “fished out” when forming the new ministerial team. He wrote to a close ally at the time: “Make sure everyone knows this is not my government.”
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Throughout the autumn, the president watched, powerless, as major decisions no longer went through him. Michel Barnier had grown increasingly independent, even encroaching on Macron’s territory of foreign affairs, while Gabriel Attal had consolidated control over both the parliamentary group and the party. Yes, some ministers still sought out Macron, but their visits felt perfunctory. “He’s not the one making decisions, but I’m one of those who value his perspective or vision,” a minister remarked recently. “It’s also a matter of respect.”
For the hyperactive Macron, therefore, the fall of Michel Barnier – the shortest-lived prime minister under France's Fifth Republic and along with Georges Pompidou in 1962 only one of two to lose a vote of no confidence - is less catastrophic than it might seem. The timing, however, is problematic. The president had hoped his prime minister would remain in place through the winter to bear the brunt of budget negotiations and face the backlash of the repeated use of Article 49-3, the constitutional device that allows laws to be passed without a vote but whose use automatically triggers a confidence vote in the government itself (one which the government has now lost). One fleeting idea was to reappoint Barnier with a streamlined government focused solely on completing the financial legislation needed for the budget. “What sense would it make, if I fall tomorrow, to reappear the day after as if nothing had happened?” was Barnier's response on television on Tuesday evening.
In recent days, the Élysée and top civil servants from the executive have explored various scenarios. One proposal was to allow Barnie’s government to remain as a caretaker administration for the budgetary process. However, this option was ruled out because a caretaker government cannot invoke Article 49-3, rendering the strategy unworkable. Similarly, the idea of a technical government has gained some traction, particularly at the Ministry of Finance, where François Villeroy de Galhau, the Governor of the Bank of France, has been suggested as a potential figurehead.
An impossible coalition with the Socialist Party
In Macron’s largely right-leaning circle, a few voices quietly suggest looking to the Left. The idea of breaking alliances, moving away from reliance on Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN), and negotiating a non-censure agreement between elements of the leftwing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) and the centrist bloc has been floated. “It’s time for a genuine coalition government with the Left, excluding La France Insoumise [editor’s note, the radical-left party which has the most MPs in the NFP] but involving the most progressive and open elements of the rightwing Les Républicains,” argued former minister Nadia Hai.
Ex-PM Gabriel Attal, now leader of the Ensemble pour la République (EPR) parliamentary group, has also called for a “political equation where the RN no longer dictates government policy”. He added: “We need to collectively escape this situation where the government is held hostage by Marine Le Pen. That would mean having a non-censure agreement with the Socialists, in addition to Les Républicains.” This sentiment has been echoed by figures such as Édouard Philippe, another former prime minister under Macron, from the centre-right.
As in the summer, these calls for a grand “coalition of moderates” are likely to remain little more than wishful thinking. While leaders of the Socialist group have indeed left the door open to a temporary agreement with the centrist bloc, they have made it clear that such a deal would require a leftwing prime minister and must be based on the NFP’s manifesto.
This is an unthinkable prospect for President Macron, who never misses an opportunity to express his disdain for the Socialists, with whom he began his political career more than a decade ago. Only on Tuesday, when asked about ex-president François Hollande’s intention to vote for the motion of censure, he sighed: “What a loss of bearings!” He went on to extend his criticism to the entire Socialist Party (PS), saying: “When you’re a party of government, in today’s circumstances you cannot ago and vote with the far-left and the far-right.”
Those who really know Emmanuel Macron understand that he has no desire to cede power to a Left he despises. Last summer, he dangled the possibility of appointing Bernard Cazeneuve - who served as premier under Hollande - as his prime minister, only to pull back, irritated by Cazeneuve’s insistence on revisiting some of his policies, such as pension reform. “His mistrust of the PS is hard to grasp,” remarked a former senior minister aligned with the Right. “It’s the crucible in which he was forged... In my view, the PS is a more reliable partner than the RN. But in his?”
At the Élysée on Wednesday, the mood was not one inclined towards widening alliances. On the contrary, the president was determined to act swiftly but, above all, to regain control. Why remain on the sidelines if it brings no political advantage, no boost in popularity, and no semblance of stability? Some of his closest allies are urging him to appoint someone from his inner circle, arguing that the current political climate is very different from that of late summer. “In the fragmented landscape we see today, he could emerge as a pillar of stability,” one confidant suggested.
To prevent his opponents, who are increasingly vocal about the possibility he might have to resign, from gaining momentum, the president is keen to find a solution that will last until the summer. He does not want to find it too soon, so as not to overshadow the grand reopening of Notre-Dame cathedral in Paris on Saturday - an event he is eagerly looking forward to. But not too late either, for fear of jeopardising the setting of a government budget, alarming financial markets, and allowing the media to spin tales of a constitutional crisis. The start of next week is seen as the earliest realistic deadline by the most optimistic observers.
In the meantime, as with every reshuffle, the president’s strategists have floated a few names. Current minister Sébastien Lecornu and veteran centrist François Bayrou, both reputed for their good relations with Marine Le Pen, have been mentioned frequently in recent days. Both are used to such speculation, as Lecornu has wryly noted in daily newspaper Le Parisien. They are also aware that neither the appointment of Gabriel Attal in January nor that of Michel Barnier in September leaked in advance, as Macron delights in keeping his true intentions under wraps.
What this carousel of names - also including former minister Jean-Louis Borloo - ultimately reveals is the president’s determination to test his preferred scenario: placing a trusted ally at Matignon, the PM’s official residence, and himself taking back the reins of the executive. “The EPR group [editor's note, Macron's own political grouping] is the largest in the centrist bloc,” he frequently reminds his team. Even if such a strategy means entangling himself once again in the kind of negotiations with the RN that led to Michel Barnier’s downfall. Neither the defeat in the parliamentary elections of July 7th nor the censure of December 4th has shaken the convictions of a president who remains decidedly averse to embracing a real change of government.
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- The original French version of this article can be found here.
English version by Michael Streeter