Macron presides over the ruins

EmmanuelEmmanuel Macron arrived at the Champ-de-Mars in central Paris on Sunday evening to the sound of Beethoven's 'Ode to Joy', music which had also greeted him at the courtyard of the Louvre on the evening of his victory in 2017. But this time the president, who had just been re-elected with around 58% of the vote against Marine Le Pen, chose not to enter alone as he did five years ago. Instead he walked hand-in-hand with his wife Brigitte, surrounded by young people. It was a scene that had been carefully choreographed to underline his promise of a “reformed approach … to serve our country and our young people”.

In his speech that evening the head of state first of all thanked “all the French women and men who, in the first round and then the second round, placed their trust” in him to carry through his project. But he quickly added: “I know that many of our compatriots voted for me today to keep out the ideas of the far-right, not to back those that I support. I want to thank them and tell them that I am aware that this vote places an obligation on me in the years to come. I am the custodian of their sense of duty, of their attachment to the Republic, and of respect for the differences that have been expressed in recent weeks.”

One could be mistaken for thinking that this promise reassembled the one that this same man had uttered five years ago after his first victory against Le Pen, before promptly forgetting it once in power. For on May 7th 2017 Macron had declared: “This evening I also want to say a word to the French people who voted for me without sharing our ideas. You are committed and I know that this does not mean a blank cheque. I want to say a word to the French people who simply voted to defend the Republic in the face of extremism. I know we have disagreements, I respect them, but I will stand by the commitment I have made: I will protect the Republic.”

On Sunday evening Emmanuel Macron also spoke to the many millions who had abstained from voting in the second round at all. “Their silence showed a refusal to choose, to which we must also respond,” he said. He then spared a thought for those who had voted for his opponent. “I know that many of our compatriots today chose the far-right; the anger and disagreements which led them to vote for that project must also find a response; that will be my responsibility and of those around me. We must consider all the difficulties that people are going through and respond effectively to the anger that's been expressed.”

Promising a project that he described as “humanist”, “republican in its values”, “social and environmental”, “based on work and creativity”, “freeing up our academic, cultural and entrepreneurial strengths”, the freshly re-elected president insisted that he would carry out his project by being a “custodian of the divisions and differences that have been expressed”. He would do this, he said by “ensuring respect for everyone, every day by continuing to work for a fairer society and for equality between men and women”. His project would be marked by “ambition” and “goodwill”, he added.

Re-election – but at what price?

This avowed modesty in Emmanuel Macron's words stands in sharp contrast with the election night scene staged by his team and also with the declarations of some of his supporters. As soon as the results were announced some of them rejoiced at a score that Richard Ferrand described as “unprecedented in scale”. The president of the National Assembly added: “With the exception of [Jacques] Chirac against [Marine Le Pen's father Jean-Marie] Le Pen in 2002, a president has never been re-elected with such a score.” Ferrand neglected to mention, however, that Emmanuel Macron has been elected twice against a far-right candidate. Meanwhile, the economy minister Bruno Le Maire spoke of a “clear mandate”. He said: “The president now has the the legitimacy to carry out the transformation of the country.”

Few in the ruling La République en Marche (LREM) party had a word for the millions of voters who had gone to the voting stations simply to block the far-right from power. The head of state had himself paved the way for this blinkered approach immediately after the first round on April 10th. “As there is no longer a Republican front [editor's note, an informal agreement among mainstream parties to keep out far-right candidates] I can't act as if it exists,” he said at the time, to boost the idea that a vote for him would be one of positive support, thus hoping that he would be able to continue his policies as before over the next five years.

Emmanuel Macron is the first French president under the Fifth Republic to have been re-elected when the opposition did not have control of the National Assembly and in effect government - a situation known as 'cohabitation'. And as stated, he has also won both his elections against the far-right. Nonetheless, he succeeded in the gamble he has taken since his election in 2017. But the question is: at what price? The man who, after his first victory in 2017 had insisted that he wanted to do all he could to make sure that no one would have “any reason to vote for the extremes”, in fact then hugely contributed during his presidency to ensuring there would indeed be a second head-to-head clash with Marine Le Pen in 2022. His aim being to spend ten years in the Élysée.

The far-right made 'normal'

Back in September 2019 the head of state had warned his troops: “You only have one opponent on the ground: that's the Front National [editor's note, the former name of Le Pen's Rassemblement National]. You have to be clear about them as the opposition, for that's what the French people have decided.” But rather than fight the far-right by removing the social inequalities that fuel it, he and his supporters adopted the far-right's favourite themes. Using populism and a fairly mediocre form of triangulation, they helped legitimise the far-right's leaders and ideas in public debate.

This self-proclaimed progressive, his government and his ruling party thus all went back on their promises of “openness”, “liberty”, “fraternity” and “inclusion”, qualities that were initially enshrined in the LREM party's Charter of Values. Behaving like the most stupid rightwingers in the world, they constantly fuelled debates around so-called “community [election] lists” - where groups representing one community in society stand for election – immigration, mothers who wear the veil on school trips, law and order, so-called “certificates of virginity”, “Islamo-leftism” and “wokism”.

Smiling all the while, Macron supporters and ministers have judged Marine Le Pen “too soft” on immigration (that was interior minister Gérald Darmanin), claimed they were more “scared” by the current “intersectional” approach to looking at society than by far-right polemicist Éric Zemmour (junior minister for youth Sarah El Haïry), and created a row around return to school payments allegedly being used by families to buy flat-screen televisions sets (education minister Jean-Michel Blanquer). They have also said they wanted to “escape the grip of, on the one hand, those obsessed with identity politics on the far-right, and on the other the indigenists of the [green] Europe Écologie-Les Verts party” (that was junior interior minister Marlène Schiappa), and have regretted how “Islamo-leftism is plaguing society” (higher education minister Frédérique Vidal).

All this meant that Marine Le Pen was increasingly seen as an ordinary political opponent. Between the two rounds of voting in this presidential election, and in particular during the televised debate between the two candidates, the president took care to attack his opponent “project against project” in order to unite people around him rather than her. In doing so he completed the “normalisation” process that the Rassemblement National has been attempting in recent years.

This approach was an electoral success but it can only be a loser in terms of democracy. For no one can be happy to see the far-right get through to the second round of the presidential election for the second time in a row. Just as no one can be pleased with what is now a Pyrrhic victory. “What worries me more than anything, apart from Sunday's result, are the next five years,” one minister admitted a few days ago. One Member of Parliament for the ruling LREM said: “If we win we're heading for a complete mess.”

The more clear-eyed of Emmanuel Macron's supporters are aware that the president was re-elected without any enthusiasm. And that he was returned to office on the back of a dubious record in office and a manifesto that was unpopular, in particular on the issue of extending the retirement age. “I think that we are going to face a storm, an economic storm, a health storm, a storm in all respects, perhaps a social storm, perhaps a political storm, but I think the times ahead are going to be very difficult,” said Édouard Philippe in September 2020, soon after he left as Macron's first prime minister.

While these supporters have publicly criticised the right-wing president of the French Senate, Gérard Larcher, for earlier questioning the president's “legitimacy” if he were elected, given that he hardly campaigned and there was no clash of ideas, some have privately accepted that the question was worth posing. For five years the same supporters have looked on with concern at the way the head of state has divided society, by making a distinction between bad and good citizens; the “irresponsible” people that Macron said he wanted to “piss off”, and the rest.

Democratic crisis

Emmanuel Macron himself recognised the issue of divisions in November 2018 at the early stages of the 'yellow vest' protest movement. “I have not succeeded in reconciling the French people with their leaders,” he had said, adding that the government had “without doubt” not shown enough “consideration”. This initial admission of guilt was followed by several others, yet nothing changed, either in style or substance. Through a succession of off-the-cuff remarks, U-turns and the exercise of power in a lofty, top-down manner, the head of state simply made things worse.

Rather than listen to those among his close supporters who urged him to make good on his promise of proportional representation in elections, in order to avoid a “democratic crisis”, Emmanuel Macron carried on as if nothing was the matter. But despite his victory there is indeed a crisis. The “Republican front” has not disappeared, contrary to what he has claimed, but it has withered under attack. The level of abstentions and the small number of percentage points that separates him from Marine Le Pen proves that, to use one of his favourite expressions, “there's everything left to play for”. And that means over the next five years.

Emmanuel Macron's initial task is to form a new government. The president has already indicated that the current prime minister Jean Castex will stay in post until at least May 1st. “It's important in this time of war and with very strong tensions over the cost of living that the handling of day to day affairs can be very reactive, because there might be urgent measures that need to be taken in the coming days. We must have continuity,” the president told BFMTV news channel last Friday.

A ruling majority that is already divided

In the current government team everyone has now been told to pack up their desks, even if many hope they will stay. Education minister Jean-Michel Blanquer has let it be known he is “ready to carry on” in the post he has occupied for the past five years. Several others have sent notes during the campaign outlining their thoughts. “In the end only a handful will remain,” sighed one minister recently. They cited in particular agriculture minister Julien Denormandie, whom many think will earn promotion in the new government.

But as well as finding the right balance for his new government, the head of state is going to have to make concessions in particular to the different views of the ruling party with June's Parliamentary elections in mind. This is the subject that is on everyone's minds, and not least the president of the centrist MoDem party François Bayrou, a Macron ally, and ex-premier Édouard Philippe who has formed his own party Horizons. The pair have been digesting Emmanuel Macron's comments on the evening of the first round of voting, which seem to suggest he is planning a new party for the Parliamentary elections.

“At this decisive time for the future of the nation, nothing should stay as it was. That's why I'm holding out my hand to all those who want to work for France. I'm ready to invent something new to unite different political views, to construct a great movement with them,” Macron said on April 10th. He appeared to be drawing the outline of a new single party in which he would merge all the elements of the existing majority – the LREM, MoDem and Horizons. This could also embrace several MPs from the conservative Les Républicains or socialist MPs through ad-hoc agreements.

Former MPs from Les Républicains have already been knocking at the door of the ruling party in recent days, hoping to join them. “Particularly supporters of Sarkozy,” according to one minister. Ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy, who worked in the background to help Emmanuel Macron get re-elected, wants to have an impact on the coming presidency. On April 12th the current president Emmanuel Macron said that the support of the former head of state “honoured me and does me a favour”. On Sunday evening, as the result came in, some conservative MPs, including the head of the LR group at the National Assembly, Damien Abad, could hardly contain their enthusiasm for Macron's win.

François Bayrou, meanwhile, has understood the nature of the Macron plan. And the man who rejected an offer to fuse his movement with the centre-right UMP in 2002 – it later became Les Républicains – is not happy with the current president's plans for one broad centrist party. “We think there has to be political biodiversity,” one of his close aides explained. “You can potentially think about some form of convergence but certainly not merging them.” Nor does Édouard Philippe much like the sound of the idea. He told Le Figaro newspaper: “François Bayrou used to say 'If we all think the same it's because we're not thinking anything.' It's always important to keep the great protagonists in mind.”

Just before the head of state arrived at the Champ-de-Mars on Sunday evening François Bayrou, who was present in the audience for the speech, said on camera that the next presidency had to be about “five years of acknowledging the people of France, whatever their situation or opinion”. It was his way of saying that the president's second term of office cannot be modelled on the first one: top-down, authoritarian and remote. Or scornful of all those who do not think like Emmanuel Macron.

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• The original French version of this article can be found here.

English version by Michael Streeter